BY M. ALI KISLALI
RADIKAL- Following last week’s elections, with more than 80 political parties and nearly 30 independent candidates, Iraq’s insurgency seems to be continuing. The Shiite slate of 169 candidates apparently won the most votes. Kurdish votes were captured by the Barzani-Talabani alliance. Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s secular Shiite party also found favor. A simple election system was used in the polls. As the official results emerge, under the temporary Constitution, the government should be established within one week. First, the Parliament will elect a speaker and two deputy speakers for the Chairmanship Council, and the council will appoint a prime minister. He will establish the government, which should have a simple majority.
Female candidates should constitute one-third of the list of each party participating in the elections. Parliament’s most important task will be preparing a new constitution by mid-August. The constitution will be submitted to a referendum, followed by general elections. If the assembly works hard to prepare the constitution, they can extend the period by six months. If two-thirds of voters in three provinces reject the constitution, they will have to go back to the drawing board. Kurds, who now control three provinces, have the right to veto. Sunni Arabs also have this right. Iraq’s future depends on the cooperation of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish groups. For now, prospects of this seem slim. If Sunnis aren’t involved in preparing the new constitution, ending the violence will be difficult. In addition, it’s thought that if the Kurds take Kirkuk, other groups will reject this. For this reason, the US is staying mum in order not to rile Kurds about Turkey’s concerns over Kirkuk. Attacks against local Iraqi police are continuing. Iraqi intelligence estimates that there are nearly 40,000 insurgents, with 160,000 Iraqis helping them. Thus, the US can’t stop the insurgents, as they have the support of the people. Last week US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld blamed the current situation in Iraq on Turkey’s refusal to let US soldiers invade from the north, and this brought a smile to Ankara’s face. The US never thought it would face such a war after its invasion. Even now it seems the US hasn’t come to terms with this insurgency. Thus, Iraq’s future following the elections doesn’t seem promising.