BAGHDAD, Feb 2 (AFP) - Prime Minister Iyad Allawi said Wednesday that insurgent attacks have fallen since Iraq's elections, but experts warned that rebels could stage a comeback unless the new government seizes the initiative.
"There has been a distinct fall in terrorism but we cannot say that they (the attacks) have finished," Allawi told state television, saying the security clampdown for Sunday's election "was a major blow for the terrorist forces."
"The days and weeks ahead will reveal whether this fall continues or if it is just a tactic to let the terrorists review their plans," Allawi said.
There have been minor attacks since Sunday's vote, with 11 people killed in areas around Baghdad as well as an attack on an oil pipeline, but the situation remains relatively calm compared to previous weeks.
Even so, Saadun al-Dulaimi, of the Iraqi Centre for Research on Strategic Studies, warned that insurgents may be plotting their comeback.
"Maybe they are just waiting for the new government to be formed. Ultimately the elections aren't going to stop the violence. That depends on the new government's achievements.
"If the government improves the security situation, the electricity supply, the lack of jobs, then that will defeat the insurgents."
At least 36 Iraqis were killed on election day itself, but the scale of the violence was much less than feared and voter turnout exceeded expectations.
The insurgents "were supposed to shoot their big shot on election day and they couldn't," said Mohammed Abu al-Jabar, editor of the state-funded Al-Sabah newspaper.
"They lost their bet."
While warning that it is too early to predict what the insurgents will do next, Jabar said the situation in Iraq "will be quieter than before the elections".
"Having 70 percent of people going to the ballots means that they are defeated."
Fadel al-Fatlawi of the Iraq Institute of Peace agreed: "The insurgents see the election as a defeat. This is the worst day of their lives and the most happy day for all Iraqis."
He said violence has decreased both because of the security clampdown in the run-up to the vote and because insurgents are gathering themselves to unleash a new offensive.
"Our security has done a lot of damage to them in the last 15 days and at the same time they're in hiding to prepare for something."
The insurgents are "very intelligent people". Former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein "trained them for many years, so they're not people who are just going to give up."
Planning Minister Mahdi al-Hafaz said increased political awareness in the wake of the vote will help stability.
"People now understand that the political process is in their interests and that they have to pursue it.
"The great majority of people couldn't understand that their interest lies in completing the political process, that this is the way to restore stability. More people understand that now, even those who didn't vote."
Despite the apparent calm, the group of Al-Qaeda's Iraq frontman, Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, has vowed to "press on with their jihad (holy war) until the banner of Islam flies over Iraq", according to a statement on an Islamist website.
But, says Fatlawi, after the elections "the only form of jihad available in Iraq is dialogue.
"Iraqis are not going to give up this new democracy and this new way of living. We'll just keep our fingers crossed and hopefully they'll catch most of them before the end of the year. This is the beginning of a new era for Iraq."
02/02/2005 16:45 GMT - AFP