Sunni-led governments across the Gulf region were quietly preparing in late January 2005 for an expected Shiite electoral victory in Iraq's 30 January polls, with many officials expressing concern that a Shiite-led Baghdad could expand Iranian influence and destabilize the broader Middle East.
Jordan's King Abdullah II was among the most outspoken, warning in a December 2004 interview that Iran was working to create a Shiite arc of influence stretching through Iraq into Lebanon. Most Gulf governments, however, kept such worries largely private while encouraging Iraq's Sunni minority to participate in the vote.
Qatari analyst Mohammed al-Misfer argued that Gulf rulers had little practical choice but to accept Washington's approach, and cautioned that a Shiite-led Iraq could embolden Shiite populations across the region to resist traditional Sunni dominance.
Saudi officials struck a careful tone, calling for Iraqi national unity and suggesting that a moderate Shiite government would be manageable. Saudi Arabia has a Shiite minority of roughly two million within a total native population of about 17 million. One liberal Saudi academic said his greater worry was Iraq sliding into civil war rather than Shiite governance itself.
Kuwaiti commentators were notably less anxious, welcoming democratic elections regardless of outcome and voicing confidence that a friendly, democratic Iraq would serve the region's interests.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this AFP wire report, first published in January 2005, in its own words.