DAMASCUS, Jan 26 (AFP) - Already under heavy US pressure, the elections in Iraq pose a strategic headache for Damascus and could bolster a pro-Western enemy or decentralise a neighbour capable of destabilising Syria.
Given Syria's deep hostility to the massive US military presence along its eastern border, analysts fear Sunday's elections could sever the already strained ties between Damascus and Baghdad.
Washington and the interim Iraqi government have repeatedly accused Syria and its regional ally, Iran, of allowing insurgents to cross into Iraq in a bid to block the emergence of a pro-American regime.
Damascus has routinely denied the charges, but internal power games within the last remaining Baathist regime after the fall of Saddam Hussein and its reluctance to toe the US line have produced a deeply confused Iraq policy.
"The situation in Iraq threatens Syria, not only because of the presence of American troops, but also because of the consequences of this war," President Bashar al-Assad announced on Tuesday in Moscow.
The 2003 US-led invasion to remove Saddam dramatically altered Middle East geopolitics. Hand-in-hand with economic sanctions on Syria for purportedly bankrolling terrorism, Damascus has fast emerged as the region's new victim.
"Syria does not want a strong, wealthy, centralised, pro-Western state, probably on good terms with Israel, on its border," said Lebanese political analyst Joseph Bahut.
"But neither could it put up with a neighbour modeled on sectarian fault lines, which Iraq risks turning into if the troubles multiply," he added.
A heavily decentralised Iraq, monopolised by its majority Shiite Muslims and northern Kurdish community could spell disaster for the current Syrian elite.
A Kurdish "state" to the northeast could incite secessionists among Syria's own Kurds to rise up against the country's firmly pan-Arab regime.
Last year, the Syrian authorities put down a mini-Kurdish revolt, killing dozens in the northeast of the country, in a region sandwiched between Turkey and Iraq.
Assad has expressed fears of a shake-up in the Middle East, saying the region was passing through a "very dangerous period, more dangerous than that of the Sykes-Picot agreement".
One consequence of that 1916 Anglo-French treaty saw the Syrian region around Mosul incorporated into modern-day Iraq.
Yet by supporting the Sunni-inspired rebellion in Iraq, Damascus "risks encouraging its own Islamists and inevitably paving the way for internal combustion", Bahut added.
Other experts have suggested that elements of the Syrian regime would like Washington to appreciate that Damascus and Tehran, can also play a stabilising role.
"The security of Syria is linked to that of Iraq... It is inconceivable that Syria should work against its own strategy," Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara said recently.
US officials have given the Syrians some credit for helping to crack down on funding for anti-American insurgents and tightening border patrols. Up to 2,000 people have been reportedly arrested trying to cross over into Iraq.
With the risk of boycott among Iraqi Sunnis high, Assad has stressed the importance that "all Iraqis" participate in the elections.
Damascus was initially sluggish to allow Iraqi polling stations on its territory. Although Syria has the largest Iraqi expatriate community in the world, some 400,000 people, less than 10 percent have registered to vote.
Earlier this month, US Secretary of State-designate Condoleezza Rice threatened new US sanctions should Syria maintain its alleged ties to terrorists.
Washington still has more options for sanctions available under the Accountability Act, including downgrading diplomatic ties and imposing travel restrictions on Syrian envoys in the United States.
"I think that it's fair to say that the Syrian government is behaving in a way that could unfortunately lead to long-term bad relations with the United States," Rice said during her Senate confirmation hearing on January 18.

01/26/2005 13:22 GMT - AFP