BY SAHIN ALPAY
TODAY’S ZAMAN- The demise of autocratic regimes, first in Tunisia and right after in Egypt, has triggered a broad debate that centers on the following question: Is the coming regime in Egypt, which carries a central importance for the Arab world, likely to resemble Turkey, or Iran?
The three countries involved have nearly nothing in common other than all being Muslim-majority societies, and the transition period Egypt has entered is full of uncertainties. It is, however, still possible and informative to speculate on the question of whether the regime to emerge in Egypt is likely to be inspired more by Turkey, in the process of consolidating democracy on European norms, or by the theo–democracy in Iran.
It seems on many counts that the latter scenario is not at all realistic. Iran certainly is in no condition to be a source of inspiration for others, simply because the Islamic Revolution has failed, and grossly so. It has brought neither prosperity nor freedom to the people of Iran. Theo–democracy, that is, a kind of democracy under the tutelage of the Shiite clergy, is showing signals of collapse under the force of growing popular opposition.
The Islamic Revolution against the dictatorship of the shah took place under the conditions of the Cold War, at a time when authoritarian methods were still regarded as legitimate, and was dominated by religious leaders who politicized Islam. The revolution in Egypt, on the other hand, is led by youth who rose up against the autocratic regime, motivated by demands of freedom and democracy, which gained global appeal after the end of the Cold War. The Islamist movement in Egypt is far from being able to dominate the future of the country, having the support of only about a fifth of the population. It has considerably moderated its stance. The slogan of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the most influential Islamist organization in Egypt is no longer “Islam is the solution†but “Freedom is the solution.†Recently Essam El-Errian, a member of the leadership council of the MB declared: “We come with no special agenda of our own -- our agenda is that of the Egyptian people … We aim to achieve reform and rights for all, not just for the Muslim Brotherhood, not just for Muslims, but for all Egyptians.†(The New York Times, Feb. 9) Grandson of Hasan El Banna, the founder of the MB, and an influential political thinker Tariq Ramadan wrote: “Only by exchanging ideas, and not by torture and dictatorship, can we find solutions that respect the people’s will. Turkey’s example should be an inspiration for us.†(The New York Times, Feb. 8)
“Turkey’s example,†surely, does not signify a full–fledged and consolidated democracy. Turkey is struggling to end bureaucratic-military tutelage over its at least 60-year-old democracy. It is likely to succeed mainly because it is a society wide open to the world, has a fast growing economy and has been part of the Western alliance since the end of World War II. It has held free and fair elections since 1950, and with broad enough freedom of expression to debate all of its problems, leaving no taboo overturned.
Under the government of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), with roots in the moderately Islamist National Vision movement, Turkey has not only improved its democracy and developed its economy but has also greatly increased its “soft power,†that is, its ability to set an example in its region. The AKP has, most importantly, demonstrated to the entire world that Islamists have the capacity to learn from mistakes and increasingly adopt liberal democratic positions. The AKP government, while preserving strong ties with the West, has been able to forge peaceful relations with its neighborhood which serve the country’s economic and security interests. The entire greater Middle East increasingly consumes Turkish goods and watches Turkish movies that show how life can be in a modern and democratic Muslim-majority nation. Turkey has also been able to take a stance against the continued Israeli occupation and oppression of the Palestinians, winning the hearts of the Arab peoples. In view of factors mentioned above it is only obvious that Turkey has the potential to inspire Arab democracies now set to emerge on the world scene.
There are some who argue what Turkey is trying to overcome, that is, a sort of illiberal democracy under bureaucratic-military tutelage, may be the shape the coming regime in Egypt will assume. They need to consider, however, that whereas democracy was introduced in Turkey top-down by state elites, democracy in Egypt is likely to take shape under the bottom-up pressure of its people. Democracy arrived in Turkey during the Cold War, a period now left behind. The question remains: Will the United States and its European allies support military tutelage or real democracy in Egypt? That may well be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the people’s revolution in Egypt.