BY IBRAHIM KALIN
TODAY’S ZAMAN- According to a recent survey published by the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), Turkey is perceived as a positive actor and a rising power among the peoples of the Middle East. Contrary to claims Arabs are not happy about Turkey’s increasing role in the region, the survey suggests Arabs want to see Turkey playing an even bigger role. Why?
The TESEV report on the perception of Turkey in the Middle East is based on interviews with 2,267 people in seven Arab countries (Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Saudi Arabia) and Iran. The interviewers asked about Turkey’s role in the Middle East, Turkey’s EU membership, Turkey as a model for other countries and perceptions of other countries, including the US, China and Israel.
Several results stand out. First of all, 75 percent view Turkey favorably. The questions covered a number of areas, such as Turkish diplomacy in the region, the economy, tourism and democracy. Turkey is seen as playing a very positive role through its mediation efforts in the region. From the Palestinian issue to the Iranian nuclear program, many consider Turkey to be a problem-solving actor. What is even more interesting is that 78 percent believe that Turkey should play a bigger role in the region.
Besides Turkey’s diplomacy and mediation role, Turkey is seen as a democratic country. This places Turkey above many of its neighbors in the region. Despite the heavy presence of the military in Arab perceptions of Turkey, Turkish democracy comes out as a distinctive feature that can inspire other countries. Moreover, 66 percent believe that Turkey can be a model for other countries, and the main reason mentioned (again 66 percent) is that Turkey has been able to reconcile Islam and democracy.
The third important factor for Turkey’s favorable image in the region is its economy. Not many people realize that Turkey ($800 billion) is the largest economy in the Muslim world ahead of Indonesia ($700 billion), Saudi Arabia ($450 billion) and Iran ($350 billion). In the Arab Middle East, Saudi Arabia is still seen as the biggest economic power. But now this is changing, too. As Turkish companies and products become more visible and established in the Arab market, Turkey will soon be seen as the real economic giant in the region.
Democracy, Islam, the economy and foreign policy are the four main indicators that measure the current perceptions of Turkey in the Middle East. Do these elements make Turkey a model? Some think so. But the model debate is a slippery one and has many flaws. First of all, Turkey does not project itself as a model for anyone. President Abdullah Gül, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and other Justice and Development Party (AK Party) officials have said this on many occasions. They rightly avoid any patronizing language or attitude towards others.
Secondly, conceiving a model for Arab countries is a way of forcing change upon them and would not be very different from President Bush’s failed “democracy and freedom agenda.†What needs to be done in most Arab countries is clear: better governance, ending corruption, establishing institutions of democracy, free and fair elections and better economic policies. These are clear-cut goals and have become universal policies. Arab countries do not need Turkey or another country to implement these policies in their own countries.
There is another problem with the current model debate. Those who were very critical of Turkey until recently now present it as a model for the Arab world because they seem to establish a hierarchy of democracies. First, we have the autocratic Arab regimes. Second, there is the semi-democratic (and somewhat unruly) Turkey. And thirdly, we have the advanced democracies of the West. Since, the argument goes, Arabs cannot nourish and sustain the culture and institutions of democracy as they developed in advanced countries, they should imitate a country like Turkey.
This is a flawed analysis and far from grasping the realities of the Arab world. As we have seen in Tunisia and Egypt, the Arab public cares about both the culture and institutions of democracy and wants to see them implemented in their countries. Turkey may have served as a source of inspiration because of its democracy, growing economy and active foreign policy. But this does not mean that Arabs are clueless about what kind of a political system they should adopt and should therefore look to Turkey.
The TESEV survey shows that Turkey is likely to increase its profile in the Middle East as a constructive player. This should be a welcome development for everyone because the problems in the region require the presence of more positive and constructive players.