The War

by Erdal Safak
The Iranian nuclear crisis has, in the end, given rise to war. Either the United States with the support of Israel, or Israel with the support of the United States, has gone onto the attack against Iran.

It has been said since the beginning of the crisis, that is, for years now, that the United States, and particularly Israel, would not merely look on at Iran's acquisition of the technology to be able to manufacture nuclear weapons, and that they would, sooner or later, stage an operation targeting the nuclear military facilities. Indeed, various scenarios were even written about the operation.

But all the scenarios were based on the possibility of a "real" war. No one thought of a "cyber," that is, a "virtual," attack.

But what didn't strike people's minds has now struck in reality: Virtual attacks have been staged for weeks now, in an intensive way, against Iran's nuclear reactors and petroleum facilities.

The weapon being used in the attacks is a computer virus that has been given the name "Stuxnet." The particular characteristic of this virus is that it targets the data processing centres and software programmes of strategic facilities (nuclear generators, petroleum and natural gas pipelines, petroleum platforms, electrical power plants, and industrial facilities.) The virus enters into the computers of the facilities cited and works as a double-edged sword: It first paralyses the facilities, and then if need be loads incorrect programmes and seeks to blow up the facility on its own. Just like, in other words, the disks that "self-destruct in a few seconds" in the "Mission Impossible" series...

Yet another aspect of the virus is that it is so complex as not to be able to be generated by "hackers." In order to be able to generate this complex virus, very substantial financial resources, and technologies attainable only by states, would be required. For this reason, the suspicions at first were directed towards Israel. Because there is a very special team, known as "Unit 8200," in the Israeli military. Its function: to generate "cyber war" weapons.

Iran is avoiding making a detailed statement, but it is calculated that the "Stuxnet" virus has infected at least 30,000 of the computers in its public sector.

The initial results of the attack? At least half of the approximately 8,000 centrifuge tubes in the Natanz nuclear plant are out of operation. Reports are also coming in that the Bushehr plant, which has not yet begun operation and at which the loading of nuclear fuel is ongoing, has been paralysed as well.

Bushehr, in particular, deserves note. Because this place will only generate nuclear energy. And Russia provides its fuel. In other words, it is impossible for it to be modified in order to enable it to produce nuclear weapons. Since a virtual attack was able to be staged against Bushehr in spite of this, this means that the United States or Israel, or other powers with the ability to generate viruses of this sort, can from wherever they are put any nuclear power plant they might wish out of operation. They can do the same thing with whatever other factories, petroleum facilities, and other strategically important installations they might choose to incapacitate... In other words, the security of even the facilities considered to be the most inaccessible hangs by a thread.

The topic is so important as to impact the future of states and societies. Consequently, we will continue tomorrow.

The War (2)

Let me continue to relate the developments related to the all-out virtual or cyber attack launched against Iran by means of the "Stuxnet" computer virus, which only a very strong power with a paid staff, in short a state, would be able to generate.

General Amos Yadin, the chief of Israeli military intelligence, gave a presentation to the government last year regarding preparations for cyber warfare. The preparations consisted of two components: 1-Protecting Israel's strategic systems, and 2-Penetrating the computer systems of hostile countries. Following this briefing, Defence Minister Ehud Barak gave the order for the development of a "cyber arsenal," which he declared to be a "national priority of Israel."

It is for this reason that the hand of Israel is being seen behind the cyber attack now targeting Iran's nuclear reactors.

The New York Times, in a lengthy report on this topic yesterday, stated that the inclusion in one of the files in the "Stuxnet" virus of a name referring to the "Book of Esther", which is included in the Torah and was put into the Bible as well, is significant. Because the "Book of Esther" relates the story of a "preventive attack" that the Jews conducted against the Persians.

Naturally, this clue, just as it could convey the message that the cyber attack on Iran comes from Israel, could also be a trick of those seeking to focus suspicions on Israel. But despite this, two points are certain:

1-As Iran has officially stated, this attack is the work of a state.

2-Israel will neither confirm nor deny the attack. The truth will for a long time remain a secret known by only a few people.

The cyber assault targeting Iran has no doubt caused a number of governments and general staffs to go into action. Because it has become clear that, henceforth, wars will be waged not with missiles, tanks, cannons, and rifles, but rather with virtual bombs. The Third World War, for instance, will in large probability not be nuclear, but will rather be a cyber conflict.

Strategies, war plans, and "weapons" need to be prepared in accord with these new realities. Some have already made great, truly great, advances in their preparations.And particularly, without any doubt, the United States.

A virtual exercise has been under way for the past three days at the "National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Centre" in Arlington. The aim of the exercise, which has been named "Cyber Storm III" and which includes participation from 7 government departments, including the Pentagon, as well as 11 states, 60 private firms, and up to a dozen international partners, is to test the country's resistance to a cyber attack that would target its informatics infrastructure.

Additionally, a "cyber headquarters" and "cyber forces" have been formed within the US Armed Forces. There is a similar unit within the NATO structure.

In the end, the matter will definitely bring countries to seek various different solutions for their national security and their strategic systems and facilities. General Keith B. Alexander, who directs the US Army's Cyber Command, has already put forth the first proposal in this regard: "We have to establish a brand new internet in order to protect the United States' strategic infrastructure, such as, for example, the electricity system."

As is stated in the report that you will read on this page from our Ankara Bureau, Turkey as well is planning to establish a "Cyber Command" within its "National Virtual Environment Security Policy" strategy. My hope is that this will be activated immediately, and I do mean immediately.

For this is the way it is: For us not to remain satisfied with being merely a regional actor, and our rise to the position of being a global player, may not suit everyone. Just imagine a cyber attack, similar to the one on Iran, targeting our dams, our power plants, and our pipelines... May God protect us!