Who Will Be Iraq’s Next Leader?

BY OMER TASPINAR
TODAY'S ZAMAN - How long will it take for Iraq to finally have a government in place? With all the focus on Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian question, the world seems to have forgotten about the stalemate in Baghdad.
Yet, recently there are some signs that Nouri al-Maliki has the upper hand, to the detriment of Iyad Allawis's Iraqiya. What is perhaps most surprising is that both Washington and Tehran seem to support al-Maliki despite the tug-of-war between the two countries on all other issues in the Middle East. So the question is simple: What brings Iran and America together in Iraq? The short answer is the "absence of a better alternative." As is well known, no party won an overall majority in the elections six months ago. This created a deadlock and forced all political parties to think about coalition possibilities. On the surface, the division appears to be between two Shia blocs: the Iraqiya, which has the support of some Sunni politicians in the country, and the Islamic Dawa Party, al-Maliki's party, which is more religious than the Iraqiya. Allawi heads the Iraqiya, which managed to win two more seats than the Dawa Party in the March 7 elections.
So why is it that Washington appears to support al-Maliki? There are various explanations. Al-Maliki is a known entity and has a strong, tough image as a law and order-oriented leader. US officials insist they are not backing any candidate and that Washington will work with whoever leads the next government. But there seems to be an American disposition in favor of stability and continuity rather than new risks. This is highly understandable from the American point of view. After all, the US is engaged in a major planned military withdrawal from Iraq. Under such circumstances, the last thing the Obama administration wants to see is a major political crisis in Iraq that leads to further chaos and upheaval. So the American priority is stability and continuity instead of rocking the boat with a new political equation in Baghdad.
What about Iran? Why is Tehran interested in maintaining al-Maliki in power? Again, the answer is the absence of a better alternative. Al-Maliki's Dawa came to power in 2005 partly thanks to Iranian support. It is a more religious party than Allawi's Iraqiya. In that sense, Dawa has a stronger religious tilt and stands at a distance to Sunni elements in the country that are closer to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. Under such circumstances, it is not surprising that Iran's priority is to maintain a strong religious Shia alliance with al-Maliki as the central figure in the broader State of Law coalition.
This picture is complicated by the regional dimension. Iyad Allawi is a secular Shia who has not only the support of a large part of Iraq's Sunni Arabs but also the backing of regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey. Yet, Allawi has not managed to convince the larger segments of the Shia community that he should be the next leader of Iraq. For Iraq's Sunni neighbors, including Syria, the appeal of Allawi is his ability to attract the Iraqi Sunni minority. Interestingly, Iraq is now emerging as a major area where the Iranian-Syrian alliance is no longer holding. Syria parted ways with Tehran and supported Allawi during the elections, in large part because Prime Minister al-Maliki accused Damascus last year of giving refuge to militants responsible for bomb attacks in Baghdad.
Having realized the importance of getting Syria on board, Iran is now lobbying Syria much harder in favor of al-Maliki. Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran's president, visited Damascus on Sept. 18. As a sign that the visit was successful, Iraq and Syria agreed last week to reinstate their ambassadors, it having been more than a year since they were withdrawn. This alarmed Allawi, who travelled to Damascus last week for talks with Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president. In short, it is too early to declare victory for al-Maliki. The regional and domestic political competition about the next government in Baghdad continues to complicate the situation. What is certain, however, is that al-Maliki's chances of staying in power as prime minister have significantly increased in the last month, due in great part to the tacit support of the US and the explicit backing of Iran. What remains to be seen is whether the majority of Iraqis will still want al-Maliki to govern.