BY AMANDA PAUL
TODAY'S ZAMAN - With Sunday's "yes" result, Turkey demonstrated that democracy is alive and kicking, while Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan made history by securing his sixth electoral victory since the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power. After carrying out a campaign worthy of a pop star, Erdogan showed the world that after eight years at the top, he is still the most popular Turkish politician Turkey has seen for decades. Nobody else comes near.
The opposition's decision to turn the referendum into a vote of confidence on the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) backfired, and they shot themselves in the foot. Coming exactly 30 years after the military coup that resulted in the current military-cooked constitution, the results represent a turning point in Turkey's democracy and the opening of a new chapter in Turkish history.
Prime Minister Erdogan must have woken up on Monday morning feeling five hundred feet tall. This result will be a big confidence boost for Erdogan, who has recently copped a lot of flak both from inside and outside Turkey. With next year's parliamentary elections on the horizon, this is exactly the boost the party needed to put them well on target for a third consecutive win. Not only did Erdogan get support from traditional strongholds, but also from regions that have been less friendly to the government. As for the others - new boy, leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP) Kemal Kiliçdarolgu -- they ran a brave a campaign but it was not enough. Kilicdaroglu failed to convince the masses outside of the CHP's own constituencies, which demonstrates that the party still has some way to go before it can hope to seriously compete with the AK Party. The CHP needs to shake up its policies and present myopic approach. Turkey needs a strong opposition party, and Kiliçdarolgu needs to step up and take on the challenge. Interestingly, Kilicdaroglu will be in Brussels tomorrow, where he will speak to the top brass at various EU institutions and address the European Parliament. Given his lack of support for the constitutional amendments, I cannot help but wonder what he is going to say. However, the real loser was the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which, even in traditional strongholds saw its support ebb away as Devlet Bahceli's harsh nationalistic messages fell on deaf ears. At MHP headquarters, I imagine some serious brainstorming on the party's future will be going on over the coming weeks.
Nevertheless, Erdogan should not take advantage of the result. He is certainly not in a position to start thinking along the lines of "l'état c'est moi" (I am the state). He needs to stay in reality and remember that 42 percent of the country voted "no" -- principally because of fears of the AK Party garnering more power and control over Turkey and its institutions. In short 42 percent of the country is afraid of where Erdogan is taking Turkey. Therefore the government needs to take this into account and reassure those who are fearful. Erdogan should not view it as "a job done" and feel that he no longer has to pander to the public. He should use this window of opportunity to take other new brave steps. He should continue on the reform road and rapidly follow up with others, including on freedom of expression and freedom of religion. Furthermore, any future constitutional changes should be prepared with the widest consultation and involve all the relevant stakeholders, all political parties and civil society.
The West has been quick to praise the result. While the US declared it "vibrancy in Turkish democracy," the EU called it "a step in the right direction." In the Middle East the result was warmly welcomed. Only in Israel has Erdogan's victory been viewed with some skepticism. The Israelis may believe that a politically strengthened Eroddan will be more well placed to support the Palestinians, something that will not appeal to them.
In recent weeks, a number of Turkey's EU friends (Sweden, UK and Finland) have started to vocalize support of Ankara. This result gives them further ammunition to use against those who are blocking Turkey's EU path -- and to hopefully somewhat silence those critics who have said that Ankara lacked the political will to carry out reforms. The EU needs to reflect carefully on its approach towards Turkey's membership negotiations. The Turks have shown their desire to continue the modernization process; a desire to strengthen democracy and freedoms; and to move closer to European values, standards and practices. The EU should respond to this call in a positive manner, meaning doing more than simply issuing statements of congratulations. Turkey needs to see some reciprocity.
However, reality hurts, and whether this result will be enough to change the course of Turkey's negotiations remains to be seen. With numerous negotiating chapters blocked, or frozen, the talks are in dire straits. There are only four chapters left to open - and four very tough chapters at that. The question is can enough pressure be put on those countries which are currently blocking the road to Brussels to free up some more chapters? Are the Cypriots going to be persuaded to unblock some of the chapter they are currently holding to ransom, or will French President Nicholas Sarkozy suddenly decide to have a change of heart and give Turkey a chance after all? With the French elections looming, I am doubtful about that. But at the same time, for the EU to do nothing would, in my opinion, be incredibly shortsighted and a fundamental error.