A confidential US State Department survey obtained by AFP found that only 32 percent of Sunni Muslims in Iraq planned to vote in the January 2005 national elections, and just 12 percent considered those elections legitimate. Conducted between 12 and 16 December by the State Department's Bureau of Research and Intelligence, the poll had not been publicly released.
The sectarian gap was wide. While 87 percent of Shia respondents said they personally intended to vote, Sunni enthusiasm was far lower: only half said participation mattered to their community, compared to 93 percent of Shia. Security fears drove much of the reluctance, with 61 percent of Sunnis reporting deep concern for their family's safety versus 24 percent of Shia. Some 88 percent of Sunnis said threats of violence near polling stations would keep them away.
Confidence in the process split sharply as well. More than half of Shia believed the vote would be free and fair; only 12 percent of Sunnis agreed. One US official called the Sunni numbers "not surprising" while describing the overall findings as encouraging.
The survey covered Baghdad, Kirkuk, Baquba, Tikrit, Kurdish cities in the north, and Shia cities across the south and mid-Euphrates, but excluded Ramadi and Mosul, where insurgent violence had been most severe.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this AFP wire report, first published in January 2005, in its own words.