BY ABDULLAH BOZKURT
TODAY'S ZAMAN - One election down in Turkey and another one to go in the US to get American-Turkish relations fully back on track. The landslide victory for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) over constitutional reforms on Sunday helped clear the fog in Washington over who will lead the reforms as a close ally. Results have shown AK Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdodan clearly solidified his position on the eve of national elections due next year.
On the US side, come November President Barack Obama will face tough congressional elections as the leader of the Democrats. After the "no" vote by Turkey to the fourth round of sanctions against Iran at the United Nations Security Council and Ankara's deteriorating relations with the hard-line Israeli government, Obama is having a hard time convincing skeptics in Congress to move ahead on demands made by Turkey, specifically high-tech arms procurements needed by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).
Even his nominee for US ambassador to Turkey, Frank Ricciardone, was held up by the Republicans in the Senate. Although Senator Sam Brownback, Republican from Kansas, was known to have had a beef with Ricciardone for some time, his reasoning signaled that the Senate will be closely scrutinizing the administration's overtures with the Erdodan government in Turkey. "I am also concerned that we have not fully considered the ramifications of a Turkish tilt toward Iran and away from Israel, and I will give those issues some attention before the Senate reconvenes in September," Brownback wrote to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
After the November elections, Obama may feel a freer hand in conducting his own foreign policy agenda vis-a-vis Turkey, but the pressure from Congress will hardly subside any time soon because of unyielding lobbying efforts from pro-Armenian and Israeli advocacy groups inside the Beltway. Nevertheless the post-Bush era policies adopted by the Obama administration in terms of a special focus on diplomatic engagement, multilateral approaches, collaborating with allies and promoting regional stability nicely align with the goals and aspirations of an increasingly assertive Turkey.
The only real problem to smooth over in Turkish-US relations seems to be originating from the gap in perspective between policymakers in Washington who still feel the old way of doing things should suffice and those in Turkey who think they could do a whole lot better, even at the expense of stretching thin on resources. I believe it is about time both sides come to their senses and face the hard reality that they are not accustomed to.
For one, our American friends should stop living in the "glorious old days" during which both countries had agreed on almost everything. Not only did they share similar goals but also agreed on how to achieve that set of goals. Put simply, the US made demands and Turkey went along with them. That is no longer the case. Turkey has matured economically and politically and has become increasingly assertive and confident in its involvement with regional and global affairs. Though we do not see a divergence or a significant shift from the goals on either side of the Atlantic alliance, both countries have started showing signs of disagreement on how to achieve the stated goals.
A case in point is the engagement with Iran that Turkey has long been supporting. Obama had initially offered to do same thing, but unfortunately it was not reciprocated by Tehran. Both the US and Turkey share the same goals when it comes to halting Iranian engagement in the region including but not limited to Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria. They both are openly opposed to a nuclear-armed Iran and devote considerable resources to prevent that nightmarish scenario from coming true.
There is, of course, no shortage of third party actors who are always ready to complicate Turkish-US ties. We know, for example, that in the Caucasus, Russia has still not decided whether to push both Armenia and Azerbaijan to reconciliation and did not miss any chance to sabotage initiatives launched by the US, hence foiling the rapprochement efforts between Turkey and Armenia. The ambivalence of Russia as a constructive partner of Turkey in the Caucasus keeps thorny issues alive in our relations with Washington.
The urgent matter at the hand is, of course, Turkey's relations with Israel, which went "deep south" after the flotilla incident that killed nine civilian Turks in open waters. While Turkey has locked itself into the corner of exacting three demands from Israel from the outset, leaving little room to maneuver into an exit strategy, the hard-line Israeli government, which feeds upon belligerent policies in the occupied Palestinian territories, did not signal any willingness to compromise despite pressure from the White House. The upcoming UN report on the incident, which will in all likelihood assign the blame to both parties, may be the only option to salvage the ties between Turkey and Israel. Undoubtedly the US is betting its money on that.
As for the friendly advice to the obverses of Turkish politics inside the Beltway, the Erdodan government is still commanding popular support in Turkey and it makes much more sense to keep doing business with the ruling party as opposed to the pro-establishment conservative hard-liners who espouse anti-US and anti-EU policies. After all, Americans are pragmatic people, and they do not like to put their eggs in the basket that will most likely perish. But for now relations between Turkey and the US will play a lower tune, at least until the year is out.