ANKARA - The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq could lead to a civil war in the country unless a stable government is formed, experts have warned, noting that the outcome would have negative impacts on Turkey.
"The biggest concern is a possible clash between Kurds and Arabs, Turkomen and Kurds or Shiites and Sunnis, which would directly have an impact on Turkey. The second concern is that instability might create a convenient environment for terrorists," Sedat Laçiner, the coordinator of the International Strategic Research Organization, or USAK, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review on Friday.
The difficulties Iraq has had in forming a Cabinet have prompted concerns in both Turkey and the United States about the country's future in the wake of the ongoing troop withdrawal, which will be concluded in 2011. All combat troops have already completed the pullout, with 50,000 American soldiers remaining in Iraq to assist Iraqi security forces.
In this environment, Turkey's main concern is whether Iraq will be able to maintain its unity, or whether instability in the country will spark divisions.
"Any clash between groups might lead to violence. There are concerns that an international force like in Afghanistan might be needed in Iraq too," Laçiner said, noting that Turkey could be drawn into a clash between Kurds and Arabs if Turkomen became involved.
Instability in Iraq could also lead to an increase in terrorist attacks, not just by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has bases in northern Iraq, but by other groups as well.
"In such a case, not only the PKK, but also Turkish Hizbollah or even al-Qaeda could directly or indirectly affect Turkey. They could easily supply arms or hide terrorists in Iraq," Laçiner said. "In the event of an increasing threat of PKK attacks, Turkey might have to ensure its security in northern Iraq with a military presence."
Even the current efforts to put together a government in Iraq may be put at risk by the pullout, said Serhat Erkmen, an expert from the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies. "If they cannot manage a stable government in Iraq, it may lead to clashes between groups. For instance, clashes between Arabs and Kurds in northern Iraq could bring about disintegration and that would affect Turkey," Erkmen told the Daily News on Friday.
He added, however, that the troop withdrawal would not create any serious change in the short term to the United States' political presence in Iraq. "The current cooperation between Turkey and the U.S. will continue regarding the struggle against PKK," he said.
Turkey has been actively engaged in efforts to form a unity government in Iraq since the general elections in the spring. It has hosted representatives of different groups in Ankara to push them to accept the formation of a government that could best represent and stabilize the country. The issue came to the agenda of Turkey's top security board Thursday as members discussed the efforts to establish a government in Iraq.
Hürriyet Daily News