By Yusuf Kanli
TDN- On the first day of the European Union Summit meeting of EU leaders, the countries appeared to be deadlocked over the Cyprus issue, with Turkey insisting on its “no direct or indirect” recognition of the Greek Cypriot administration and Europe saying “No way out.”
We were expecting Cyprus to be a major issue in front of Turkey at the summit, but the general expectation until the summit got underway was that if the EU leaders agreed to set talks with Turkey, set a clear-cut accession objective and gave up demands for permanent derogations, transition periods and exceptions to EU-wide law as regards to free circulation of labor, regional aid and farm policy, the more than 40-year-old intractable problem of the eastern Mediterranean island would not be a factor that could derail the 41-year European bid of Turkey.
Still, by the early hours of Friday morning, except for an offer from EU leaders to Turkey to open accession talks on Oct. 3, 2005, there was total confusion whether Turkey would accept that date in exchange for a compromise, or what has become fashion nowadays, “go the extra mile” for the Cyprus issue and extend the Greek Cypriot leadership de-facto recognition by extending the Sept. 12, 1963 Ankara Agreement between the Union and itself to cover all ten new members -- including the Greek Cypriot state.
Had the Turkish government not bound its own hands with declarations that such a step by Turkey was out of the question until after a settlement on the island, the possibility of a breakthrough would have become much easier.
First of all, acting on a pure legal basis, Ankara might have argued that it was already recognizing the “Republic of Cyprus” because not only was it one of the parties of the 1959-1960 accords that founded that state, but at the same time since that date has been the guarantor of it under the Treaty of Guarantee and Alliance together with Greece and Britain. It could stress that while it already recognizes the Republic of Cyprus, since the 1964 ouster of the Turkish Cypriot wing in the partnership government on the island, the administration of the Republic of Cyprus was not a legitimate one.
Indeed, that has been the case on Cyprus since 1964 when the Turkish Cypriot ministers and members of parliament were prevented at gunpoint from entering their offices.
What may happen now?
As Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, bargaining will continue until the last minute. Would a last minute effort by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and French President Jacques Chirac succeed to convince the Turkish premier not to sacrifice his country’s EU bid for the Cyprus problem? We shall all see at noon today when the official statement of EU leaders is released by the Dutch term presidency.
After last night’s dinner of EU leaders, Turkey will have to make a decision: Will it be the winning loser or the losing winner? It will either accept to “go the extra mile” on the Cyprus issue and emerge as the “winner” of the summit with a date to start accession talks that “aim for membership but which by nature will be open-ended with no guaranteed outcome” or stick to the “no direct or indirect recognition” of the Greek Cypriot administration policy and become the losing winner at home.
That is, the future of Turkey in the EU boiled down to whether it will “go the extra mile” on the island, or…
However, could there be another possibility?
The presence of U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in Brussels, the expressed readiness of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot side to start fresh talks for a settlement on the island, the growing awareness in the EU that Cyprus will be a “constant headache” for the union unless somehow the over-40-year-old problem on the eastern Mediterranean island is solved, boosts the possibility of a serious move for a resolution in the near future.