By Mehmet Ali Birand
TDN- By the time you read this article, a decision that may change Turkey’s and the European Union’s future will have been announced. If you are wondering which parts of the seven or eight-paragraph document are important, you don’t need to go into detail.
As you read this article, most of you will probably know what it includes.
It might be leaked to the media some time after midnight. The negotiations might reach a deadlock, resulting in the huge crisis. I wrote this article ignoring all the possible scenarios. My purpose here is to show what to look for in the statement.
For me, these are the most important points to look for.
1. The start of the negotiations in 2005 and a clear date. It is of no practical importance whether the date is in the first half or the second half of 2005. The assessment period will start at the beginning of the year and afterwards the negotiations will start. The assessment period is the most important sign that the negotiations will start.
2. It is important that the document says the negotiations are for accession. If it’s not there, doubts will increase.
3. The same document should not include the words ‘privileged partnership.’
4. On the other hand, in mentioning open-ended negotiations, alternative options after consulting with Turkey’s if no agreement is reached or negotiations not necessarily meaning full membership are of no technical importance. We should realize that such statements are there to appease those who are opposed to Turkey’s membership. Even though these statements are not technically important, it will be up to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to decide whether he can explain them to the Turkish public. I repeat, these sentences are just political, not technical.
5. A condition like the recognition of Greek Cyprus before the start of the negotiations cannot be accepted. But we can expect certain references to Cyprus and a wish that the matter will be resolved during negotiations.
6. Citing of the Helsinki summit declaration for the resolution of the Aegean issue and a call for neighbors to solve the matter until the negotiations are completed will not bother us. Greeks will be satisfied and let’s not forget it is Greece that doesn’t want to go to The Hague on this matter.
7. It is not important for a paragraph to say that the negotiations would be suspended if certain developments contrary to the Copenhagen criteria or even a military coup occur. No matter what is said, all EU member countries and the European Commission has the right to suspend the negotiations. A figure of 17 member states need to approve this decision, so it won’t be taken lightly. Moreover, if Turkey decides to move away from the Copenhagen criteria, it means it no longer wants to continue membership negotiations.
8. Turkey is concerned about the limitations imposed upon freedom of movement, use of funds and farming subsidies becoming “permanent.” If another word, instead of “permanent” is used, Turkey will breathe a sigh of relief. Such a statement is also a violation of the EU Constitution and can be easily repealed.
Starting process is important
The aim of such negotiations is for all sides to get what they want. Each side needs to come out with something to show their public.
For Turkey, the most important thing is to sit at the negotiation table and the benefit of sitting at the table in the short term is the flow of foreign investment. If Turkey passes the needed laws to reform bureaucracy and the justice system in a timely manner, foreign investment will begin to make a difference to the economy.
That’s why I have been saying from the start that we should not be confused with the details. Let’s just sit at the negotiating table and start negotiating. We can resolve the rest through negotiations. Let’s not forget that no one can make us accept something we don’t want.
Let’s believe in ourselves and enjoy our achievement.
Let’s see the glass as half full.
Turkey’s EU membership is unlike any other. So much resentment leaked out of the Pandora ’s Box when it was opened that only Turkey can close it.
Today will be a good day for Turkey. I am sure of that. I don’t even want to think about anything else.
Chirac showed his stature as a statesman
A short time ago, I said how big a statesman French President Jacques Chirac was and took plenty of domestic political risks by supporting Turkey.
Chirac, with his speech on Wednesday, showed his stature as a statesman.
No one expected such a clear speech of support for Turkey. All expected a more moderate statement like: “You shouldn’t worry. Turkey is not becoming a member immediately. We have the control. It is not even certain Turkey will be a member.” The president did just the opposite. He said Turkey could not be treated as a second-rate country. He said it was an honorable country and would strengthen the EU. In other words, he took a great political gamble. This was his challenge for the opposition.
He said people couldn’t wage political battles by feeding public fears. He ended his speech by saying that every French president since 1963 had supported the membership promise made to Turkey.
The Turkish delegation relaxed after Chirac’s speech. They interpreted it as a green light. However, it is not certain how much of his speech will be reflected in the summit declaration. Let’s not forget that such speeches are forgotten soon after they are made. Only joint statements made at summits last for posterity.