by LALE KEMAL
TODAY'S ZAMAN- And so we're back to square one. Turkey has once again begun intense lobbying of US congressmen to prevent them from passing a resolution recognizing the incidents of 1915 as a genocide of Armenians under Ottoman rule. The US House Committee on Foreign Affairs is to decide later today whether to officially recognize the so-called Armenian "genocide" claims.
At a press conference in Ankara on Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Burak Özügergin warned the resolution would damage ties between Ankara and Washington and undermine efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia.
Protocols signed between Turkey and Armenia last October envisaging normalization of ties between the two neighbors as well as opening their common border encouraged US President Barack Obama not to use the word 'genocide' during his traditional April 24 speech commemorating the alleged genocide of Armenians under Ottoman rule.
But the protocols have not been approved by either the Turkish or Armenian parliaments. Though the Turkish government submitted the protocols to Parliament, the legislature has yet to debate them because the Armenian Constitutional Court issued a decision last month that irked Turkey. The court, while approving the protocols, also referred to the genocide of Armenians as well as to long-held Armenian claims on Turkish territory. Ankara has been asking Yerevan to make a statement that would allay Turkish uneasiness over its court decision before pressing for the protocols to be passed by Parliament.
Nevertheless, because Turkey hasn't ratified the protocols to normalize ties with Armenia, this has not only played into the hands of the Armenian diaspora but has also weakened our argument that it isn't the duty of parliaments to decide on issues such as claims of genocide.
The Armenian lobby is strong within the US Congress, which is preparing for midterm elections in November. The US Jewish lobby, equally influential within the US Congress, this time around won't support the Turkish position due to strained ties between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Turkey continues to strongly condemn Israel over its December 2008 assault in Gaza. Furthermore, as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said several months ago, Turkish-Israeli relations can't be normalized unless Israel agrees on a peaceful compromise to the Palestinian issue.
Despite ups and downs on some foreign policy issues such as Iran, Turkey and the US are close NATO allies whose interests converge in many regional issues of conflict such as Afghanistan and Iraq. But Turkey's strained ties with Israel stand as an important factor in the further weakened Turkish ability to prevent US congressmen from passing the resolution in the Foreign Affairs Committee.
One US diplomat said that if Turkey annoys Israel, this means it annoys the US as well. In real terms, Israel is the only US ally in the Middle East, and the US sees Israel as the only true democracy in the region.
It appears that this time Turkey has little chance of preventing the committee from passing the resolution. If this happens, it is expected that the full House will vote in favor of the resolution before April 24. This wouldn't be the end of the world for Turkey, but we have to expect serious repercussions in Turkish-US relations.