March 7 Elections Set To Shape Iraq's Future

BY HASAN KANBOLAT
TODAY'S ZAMAN - Iraq's parliamentary elections set for March 7, this weekend, will be the most important event for the country since the US invasion of 2003. Basic matters concerning the country's future will be shaped based on the elections' outcome.

These basic matters are related to whether Iraq will maintain its territorial integrity, the future of relations between centralism and federalism, the fate of the controversial regions, whether conflicts will re-ignite into a civil war, and how the oil bill will be passed. Failure to re-establish the state authority may invite a process by which the country is divided. This, in turn, could trigger a regional fracture on a larger scale, which may include other countries in the Middle East.

In Iraq , politics is still styled after ethnic and religious identities. The increase in the number of people who advocate the integrity of Iraq vis-à-vis religious identities among both Sunni and Shiite Arabs is indicative of rising nationalist tendencies in the country. Still, Sunnis and Shiites continue to support their own parties. The most powerful political party in Iraq is Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party. However, nationwide this party can count on only about 20 percent of the vote, so it will have to search for coalition partners. If Maliki doesn't win the election, the Iraqi Parliament will continue to be dominated largely by alliances of Shiite Arabs. The struggle between Kurds and Sunni Arabs continues to grow. Since they lost the administration of the Mosul province to nationalist Arabs during the last election, Kurds have started to fear that they might lose their gains. In the future, more serious clashes may be seen between Sunni Arabs and Kurds, particularly in Mosul as well as Salahaddin and Diyala. The Kurdish Democratic Party's (KDP) efforts to ascend to the leadership of the Kurds are no longer welcomed by Kurdish voters. On the other hand, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is going through an organizational crisis. The Goran (Change) Party is building support among Kurds in Kirkuk, Salahaddin and Diyala after its strong support in Sulaimaniyah. However, it is becoming a regional party among Kurds instead of having the potential to build an alternative unity. Political fragmentation, bad morale, and the loss of seats in Parliament and in the government are accompanied by a weakening in the political parties and movements in northern Iraq.

Iran is the most influential player in Iraq's domestic politics. Thanks to its influence on the Shiite parties, Iran may exert greater influence in Iraq than the US. Turkey, too, is an active player in Iraq's domestic politics. Its constructive and positive role is appreciated by Iraqis.

After the success in ensuring security in Iraq, the Iraqi people have started to expect quick improvements in public services. In order to have access to better services, the people are supporting efforts to strengthen the state, which will lead to more centralism. No party can be expected to have a decisive win in the election. Based on their population, electoral discipline, organizational capacity and voting habits, one can argue that the winners will be the Shiite Arabs. Possibly, the State of Law Coalition will be the winner in the race between the major Shiite coalitions. It may be followed by the Iraqi National Alliance, al-Iraqiya List and the Kurdish Alliance. However, even if the State of Law Coalition is beaten by the Iraqi National Alliance, no big difference can be expected in their votes. Many of these coalitions specifically set up for the election will dissolve after the election, and the members of these coalitions will move closer to the party which is likely to form the government. The election won't solve Iraq's problems. Since the government will be a coalition government that will try to include all major groups under pressure from the US, it will not be able to take steps on critical issues. Thus, after the election, we can't expect a short-term solution to major issues such as the status of Kirkuk, the oil bill and federalism. For the stability of Iraq, Sunni Arabs must be integrated into the system, particularly after the election. Thus, if the Sunni Arabs can't get a good showing on Sunday, we can say that the government will remain in the Shiite Arab orbit, excluding the Sunnis.