VIENNA, Dec 16 (AFP) - OPEC slightly trimmed Thursday its projections for global oil demand in 2005 to account for the expected slower pace of global economic growth, but said that China remained the wild card factor.
In its monthly oil report for November, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it saw global oil demand next year of 83.23 million barrels per day (bpd), down 0.18 million bpd from its previous estimate of 83.41 million bpd.
The 11-member cartel said that looking at Chinese demand this year, there are some signs of moderation although no overall pattern of slowing growth was evident.
In addition, China`s interest rate hike in October -- the first in nine years -- indicates that a "soft landing" is not yet assured and that inflationary risks remain, OPEC added.
The cartel also slightly adjusted downwards its oil demand estimate for 2004, by 0.05 million bpd to 81.74 from 81.79 previously, due to the slowdown in consumption in China and the former Soviet Union countries.
Looking at its daily output levels, OPEC said its crude oil production in October -- based on secondary sources -- was estimated at 30.23 million bpd, an increase of 0.08 million bpd over the revised September figure.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 was estimated at 49.91 bpd, some 1.32 million bpd above the 48.59 million bpd estimated for 2003.
Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 51.12 million bpd, an increase of 1.21 million bpd over the 2004 forecast.
In the short term, OPEC suggested that the slow build-up in supply of distillates -- mainly used as heating oil -- may drive up oil prices in the next few months.
Poor refining activity, a result of pre-winter maintenance, especially in the United States and Europe, has tightened the distillate market around the globe, OPEC said.
Additionally, concern remains about the ability of refiners to sustain operations at near-capacity to ensure an ample supply of heating oil, the cartel added.
12/16/2004 15:34 GMT - AFP