By Mehmet Ali Birand
TDN- Starting from noon today, all eyes will turn to the Ministerial Council building located on Schumann Square in Brussels.
The European Union’s Turkey summit will start in the afternoon.
Prime ministers of the 25 member countries and four candidate countries, including Turkey, will be there. Many things will be talked about at the summit, but Turkey will dominate.
The EU will make a decision that will change both its and Turkey’s future.
The decision will be taken at a dinner attended by 25 leaders.
The leaders will air their opinions. Those with reservations will shout, others will stand by their opinions. They will decide on three topics.
They will reach an agreement on the date to start membership negotiations with Turkey. The nature of negotiations (full membership perspective and what to do if there is disagreement) and the paragraph on Cyprus will be settled.
It is impossible to say how long these deliberations will last. If France, Germany and Britain have reached an agreement between themselves, no matter how much other members, including Cyprus, object, the result will not change. There may be some angry exchanges. Greek Cypriots may resist all they can, but lacking any prestige, I don’t think what they say will count. Eventually, what Britain will say will be agreed to. Only London and Greek Cypriots are interested in Cyprus. No one else cares.
If leaders reach an agreement at the dinner, everything will be OK. If the differences of opinions persist, the matter will be re-addressed at the breakfast meeting the next day.
The most important gathering will be the one between French President Jacques Chirac, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but the time is not yet certain. The final negotiations will be between these three.
There still are two unresolved matters. One is the matter of what to do if the negotiations are unsuccessful. The other is the permanents bans imposed on freedom of movement etc.
If Turkey cannot be appeased on these two issues, it says it will reject the EU proposal.
In short, there will be a lot of pushing and shoving going on at the last minute.
I believe we will get the result late tonight or tomorrow at noon.
Who will win what?
Will Turkey get what it wants?
The answer to that question depends on what we want.
If we expect to get everything and want nothing in the statement that will displease us, it will be an objective very hard to achieve.
No matter who negotiates with the EU, one always sees the same scene. Everybody gets a piece and no country makes all its demands accepted. “Winning” is not the aim. Reaching a result and agreeing on a solution is what counts.
Our method of negotiations is a little different.
For us, consensus means sacrifice, and is believed to be very bad.
If this is our perspective, the summit declaration will not please us. If we look at it from the EU’s perspective, then, in accordance with the information we have reached until now, Turkey will get most of what it wants. However, everybody needs to know this. We still face a few matters that displease Turkey. One is permanent bans and the other is the paragraph on what will happen if the negotiations are unsuccessful.
However, don’t be surprised. After the summit, both sides will make victory announcements and that won’t actually be wrong.
Is Erdogan ready for his part?
I am writing this thinking you might be interested. I researched and learned that most meetings in the council building in Brussels took place in the small rooms of the building. Things get even more confused, if one is trying to reach an agreement on a document.
For example, Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül will be assigned a room and will hold discussions for hours between themselves. They’ll wait and then attend a meeting, before returning to the room. From time to time, people will visit and show them the documents, asking them whether they agree.
This is how the Turkish delegation will spend their time.
The real action will start tomorrow.
After the decision is taken, the most important process will start. The time to sell the agreement to the public. The prime minister’s press conference at the Media Center will be crucial. Erdogan’s body language will tell us a lot about the nature of the statement.
I hope he ignored the sensitive balances and domestic political issues and talk freely. It will be one of the most quoted speeches in Turkish history.
I hope people will take care in arranging certain theatrics. Nothing should be left to chance. Everything should be arranged like clockwork. If not, this historic opportunity will be missed.
We should not forget that theatrics are as important as the content in international relations. It makes it more tangible and interesting.