BRUSSELS, Dec 15 (AFP) - Turkey will soon learn if its long-running campaign to enter the European Union is reaching fruition as EU leaders prepare to resolve one of the most divisive issues facing the bloc.
When they convene Thursday evening for the EU's winter summit, the 25 heads of government are expected to give the green light that Turkey has long sought for the opening of accession negotiations.
But diplomats say the leaders will likely defer the actual start of the talks until the autumn of 2005, and their approval will come hedged with a raft of caveats unprecedented for an EU candidate state.
And last-minute objections that might stymie Turkey's hopes cannot be ruled out. Cyprus is one obstacle.
As the price for its accord, the internationally backed Greek-Cypriot government wants Turkey to move on normalising relations frozen since Turkish troops occupied the Mediterranean island's northern third in 1974.
France, though nominally on Turkey's side, has fuelled Turkish frustration by using the word "genocide" for the first time to describe the 1915-1917 Ottoman Empire massacre of Armenians.
French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier told parliament Tuesday that Paris would ask many questions, "notably that of the Armenian genocide", in eventual EU-Turkey negotiations.
It is French pressure above all that is likely to result in the EU failing to abide by a promise to launch accession talks with Turkey "without delay" once the leaders give their approval.
Fearful of the Turkey question overshadowing a referendum on the EU's first constitution, the French government wants the launch of the negotiations put back to the second half of next year.
The French government's fears are not without foundation given that in France, as in Germany, public opinion is largely hostile to Turkey's EU bid.
With an eye on winning their publics over, the EU leaders are expected to impose a series of stringent conditions on Turkey and warn that the accession talks will last a decade at least, with no guarantee of success.
Turkey, which physically spans the Bosphorus divide between Europe and Asia, has been knocking on the European bloc's door for more than four decades, first signing an association agreement with the then-EEC in 1963.
Its big breakthrough came two years ago, when the EU agreed -- at the same time as agreeing to let in 10 states in the bloc's biggest-ever expansion -- to decide in December 2004 on whether to start talks with Turkey.
Now that moment has come, and the arguments are, if anything, stormier than ever.
The most pro-Turkey EU states -- including Britain, Italy, Spain and Germany -- argue that admitting Turkey is a strategic priority as a bridge to the Muslim world.
But there is a hardcore of sceptics including Austria, Denmark and Cyprus. They argue that Turkey is simply too big, too different and too poor to join. The alternative proposed is a "special partnership" rather than membership.
But Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who will be in Brussels for the summit, has insisted time and again that the EU must treat Turkey like any other candidate.
He said Tuesday his government had met all the criteria required to begin accession talks through major democratic and human rights reforms adopted over the past two years, and now expects the EU to do its part.
"I believe the EU will not undersign a historic mistake which will weaken its own foundations and will make a decision in line with Turkey's expectations," Erdogan said.
12/15/2004 13:12 GMT - AFP