BY OMER TASPINAR
TODAY'S ZAMAN - Last week turned out to be a hectic one for both Turkish domestic politics and Turkish-American ties. Let's start our analysis with the latter. On the front of Turkish-American relations, the big story was of course Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington.
Their talks were dominated by Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Israel, Iraq, Cyprus and Russia. This list alone shows how complex and overarching Turkey's foreign policy agenda for Washington has become. If the two leaders wanted to spend an equal amount of time on each of these issues, there would have been only 10 to 15 minutes dedicated to each topic. Yet, since not all issues are equal, this wasn't the case. Washington, after all, is a city where 'the urgent trumps the important.' And as far as urgency goes, there were only two major issues that qualified for the immediate and special attention of the two leaders: Iran and Armenia. On Armenia, the urgency has to do more with domestic American politics than Turkey itself. It is very likely that President Barack Obama reminded Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, particularly during their one-on-one, about the risks of complacency. Ankara may have its reasons to procrastinate in terms of ratifying the two protocols in Parliament. Prime Minister Erdogan probably explained how difficult it is for his political party to go ahead with these two protocols (establishing diplomatic relations and opening the border) without some progress on Nagorno-Karabakh. He has a point. After all, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is already getting a beating at the opinion polls because of its democratic initiative on the Kurdish question. Yet, all politics is local. And Obama probably reminded him of his own domestic political predicament with the US Congress, where an Armenian 'genocide' resolution can only be effectively opposed by the White House if there is tangible, quick and substantial progress in Turkish-Armenian relations. In short, the story remains the same for both leaders. Erdogan needs a face-saving reason - progress on Nagorno-Karabakh - to force the two protocols through Parliament. Obama, in turn, needs his own face-saving excuse - visible Turkish-Armenian reconciliation - to fight off Armenian lobbying in the US Congress to pass the 'genocide' resolution. No wonder this issue is the most urgent in bilateral relations. Imagine what would happen to all the other issues between Turkey and the US if Congress passed such a resolution.
The second most important issue was of course Iran. My own sense of where we are on Iran in Turkish-American relations is that there is more convergence than divergence between Ankara and Washington. The international press, not surprisingly, likes to focus on the sensational: the risk of Turkey siding with Iran on the nuclear issue. But in reality, Washington seems content with Turkey's effort to talk some sense to Iranians. The key issue to understand here is simple: the Turkish rhetoric in public vis-à-vis Iran is significantly different than the message conveyed to Tehran in private. This looks like very bad public diplomacy on Turkey's part, but the fact of the matter is that Tureky's pro-Iran image helps Ankara's credibility and influence when Erdoğan or Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu meet with their counterparts behind closed doors. In other words, Turkey has the same goals as the international community, but different tactics. And most importantly, Washington, again more in private than in public, seems to appreciate the existence of the Turkish channel of communication with Iran.
At the end of the day, last week's visit provided a good opportunity to refresh the chemistry between the two leaders and to put both sides on the same page in terms of top priorities. More troublesome, however, is what's going on in Turkish domestic politics. On that front, the big story is the Constitutional Court's decision to shut down the Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP). The AKP's Kurdish initiative was already facing daunting challenges, but now it's officially on life support. This is a very dangerous situation as there's so much at stake with the Kurdish issue. The future of peace, stability, democracy and economic growth in Turkey depends on solving this cancerous problem. One can only hope that the old guards of Turkey's nationalist establishment won't deter and derail the reform agenda.