BY BULENT ARAS
SABAH- The Third Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) workshop was held last week with the participation of Turkish and Georgian academics, journalists and foreign policy bureaucrats. Turkish-Georgian relations and the situation of Georgia were discussed. The Nabucco agreement, which is seen to have trumped Russia, pleased Georgia. But the excitement over Nabucco has been the only positive development since the five-day Russian-Georgian conflict of late last summer.
Most agree that the reaction by Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili which spurred the war was unnecessary and that he didn't manage things well. But experts also say that Russia was determined to intervene in Georgia, even if Saakashvili hadn't reacted to their provocation. As reasons for this, they cite the country's rapid shift to the Western axis following the 2003 Rose Revolution and its moves to get protection from NATO, the European Union and the US. The Saakashvili government taking control with a military operation in the Adjara region has raised its confidence that a strong central administration will be established. But the same success hasn't been seen in Abkhazia or South Ossetia.
Georgia's relations with these two regions reached a high level back in the 1990s, when the problems froze for a short time. South Ossetia and Abkhazia have since shifted from the wide autonomy they enjoyed under the Georgian administration towards independence under Russian control. Their dilemma is that in both of these cases they are under control. What's interesting is that the Georgian administration and Abkhazian and South Ossetian leaders became dependent on external actors due to their mutual problems. The most reasonable way of solving the problem in the wake of last summer's conflict is Georgia establishing an environment of consensus with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. What's sad is that there's no hope that this dialogue will be realized in the near future.
The other way to a solution is Georgia solving its problems with Russia. In this case, Georgia is scared that Russia will again intervene at the first opportunity, let alone seek a solution. It suspiciously eyes any project Russia is involved in, including the Caucasian Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). The only hope that Georgia has is support from the West. All the cards of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are in Russia's hands..
The overwhelming public support that Saakashvili got following the Rose Revolution eroded in last year's elections, but rose again after last summer's crisis. The fact that Russia hasn't changed the administration in Georgia is considered a success for Georgia. The opposition accuses the administration of being authoritarian, and the administration accuses the opposition of being duped by Russia. Georgia is an important country for Turkey, as it's located along energy passage lines and is on our border. Since its independence Turkey has provided Georgia with constant support, and it also values Georgia's stability and security. Defying expectations that it would have to choose between Georgia and Russia last summer, Turkey managed to avoid this dilemma. Acting in line with the principle of security for everybody in the region, Ankara has to take the initiative in the Russian-Georgian issue and in Georgia's disagreement with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The Russia, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia negotiations which have been taking place are in near-deadlock. A solution seems unlikely in the medium term. The formulas of cultural pluralism and peaceful coexistence should be developed in Georgia. Long-term efforts to build confidence between Russia and Georgia, and Georgia and Abkhazia and South Ossetia, are needed. Turkey should strengthen the regional initiative that it has been conducting with the CSCP through active diplomacy. Reaching out to Abkhazia and South Ossetia might disturb both Russia and Georgia, but a constructive dialogue and certain initiatives aimed at establishing channels between the conflicting sides might find support. A careful look at Georgia shows that the status quo in the Caucasus is unsustainable. Prolonging the positive atmosphere in the wake of the signing of the Nabucco agreement will be determined by the skills of countries in the region and international actors in preventing future crises.