BY NASUHI GUNGOR
STAR - Elections will be held in northern Iraq on July 25. These elections, which are very important, have exposed a battle of powers in the region. One of the key indicators of this is the debate over requests to include a referendum on a 'Kurdistan constitution' in the elections, which Baghdad turned down.
Let's review the developments. On June 24 the regional parliament passed the draft constitution, thus requesting that it go to referendum on July 25. The constitution has two important planks. First, it envisages that Kirkuk and other regions (not now part of northern Iraq) be attached to the regional administration. Secondly, it amounts to a serious declaration of independence. The Kurdistan region, with its capital Erbil, has its own flag, national anthem and official festival (Newruz). Moreover, its official languages are Kurdish and Arabic.
The parliament is dominated by deputies who ran under the banner of regional leaders Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani (now Iraqi president) with the 'Independent Kurdistan' slogan. But now a key step on their path to independence was rejected by Baghdad, leading to a backlash in the region. Influential Kurdish deputies want Barzani, who is likely to be elected for a second term as the region's president, to declare independence. Parliamentarian Mahmud Osman decried the decision by Iraq's electoral commission to postpone the referendum, calling it a political decision made for political reasons.
When we hear 'political reasons,' a few powers come to mind, including Turkey. Ankara already made its presence felt by pushing to postpone a referendum on the Kirkuk issue which Kurds urgently wanted. Now it's trying to step carefully. As nobody has denied columnist Cengiz Candar's claim that President Abdullah Gul told the US' Barack Obama his concerns about the issue, diplomacy is underway at the highest level.
Not only the Kurds, but all actors in the region should be listened to in order to understand what Turkey is doing. Usame al-Nucayfi, a Sunni deputy in the Iraqi parliament, said the constitution was one of a state, not a region, and that it had hostile intentions that would raise tensions. One of the greatest concerns in the region in the post-US era is that the simmering Kurdish-Arab tension will flare into full-fledged conflict.
This problem, closely followed by Turkey, is so hot that nobody has the luxury of ignoring it. What's more, if you're in such close dialogue with both Kurds and Sunni Arabs like Ankara, you have to follow every development very closely. The steps taken by Ankara on this issue are actually in favor of the regional administration, because in its current situation it's hard for Erbil to resist Baghdad's pressure. The sweltering days of summer will lead to a very warm winter.