BY SEMIH IDIZ
MILLIYET- The moderates in Iran aren`t happy. The victory of extreme conservative Mahmoud Ahmedinejad over Mir Hussein Mousavi, the moderate candidate, caused great disappointment among regional political leaders in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. From Turkey`s perspective, we don`t think that the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party, which has good relations with Hamas and the regime in Sudan, will be very bothered by the outcome. Those who show their hatred of the US or the West through their love of Ahmedinejad are also glad. But there`s no way such institutions as the General Staff or Foreign Ministry, which see the country`s security from a long-term perspective and so value stability in the region, could be pleased with this result.
The reason is obvious. Today Ahmedinejad is representing high tension through his words and actions. Obviously, wise strategists in Turkey are concerned about the victory of a person whose politics is based on anti-Westernism and who wants to make his country a nuclear power. By the way, how democratic are elections held under the absolute control of mullahs and under threats made by the `Revolutionary Guards`? Many observers say the elections were rigged. Tehran also rejected international observers, another element that fuels suspicions. We also shouldn`t ignore how Ahmedinejad won nearly 65% of the reported vote. His rivals had the chance to campaign through panel discussions and public rallies, which is an improvement in Iranian democracy. On the other hand, Mousavi winning nearly 35% of the vote despite the threats of extremists can`t be ignored by the mullahs.
Furthermore, Mousavi isn`t a secular candidate placed by the US, but a man of the regime who comes from the revolution itself and has an impressive record. Obviously, some will be very pleased by Ahmedinejad`s reelection, for instance the conservatives who recently brought Benjamin Netanhayu to power in Israel. These people, who can`t digest the hand of friendship extended by US President Barack Obama to Iran, is now happy. There`s a basic reality in this region. The rhetoric and actions of extreme conservatives in Iran have always fed extreme conservatives in Israel. The more they are attacked, the stronger fascist tendencies in Israel grow. Actually, if Hamas and Hezbollah carry out new terrorist attacks in Israeli cities following Ahmedinejad`s victory, things will go just the way Netanhayu wants them to.
But others believe Ahmedinejad will act more responsibly this time. After all, these elections again raised tensions in Iran. The Iranian people are also suffering serious social and economic problems. Ahmedinejad will reportedly have to take this into consideration. So some believe he might surprise us. Of course, time will tell if this will happen or not. But in terms of realpolitik, the elections in Israel and Iran resulted in the message that tension will continue. Now Turkey`s task should be acting impartially and trying to help defuse this tension. This way Turkey will have a more influential country in the region. In this, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, known as a regional expert, will have important tasks. Thus we`ll see if he`ll implement his fine formulations which are now on paper.