BY MEHMET ALI BIRAND
MILLIYET- There were many interesting winds blowing in Turkish-EU relations last month. On the one hand, there were the statements made by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel which were criticized in Turkey, and on the other hand, there were the news from other EU members and the European Commission. We have faced contradictory pictures. Firstly, let's start with Sarkozy and Merkel. As the reforms couldn't have been started, France and Germany wanted to slow down Turkey's EU membership process and started to prepare for launching the privileged membership project. Nobody knows what the privileged membership exactly means. Everybody has a different definition for this. It's only known that it wouldn't be a full membership for Turkey and they're trying to keep Turkey among themselves with the second class accession status. Actually France favors this formula, but Germany is content. Furhermore, Austria, the Greek Cypriot administration and Greece applaud them from the back of stage. As long as Turkey doesn't implement its reforms, this current would be always in the foreground. Let's now consider the other side of the coin.
The signals from the European Commission are completely different. When I talked to persons from the Commission who have been following closely, I started to see the picture more clearly. Brussels is only talking about the economic crisis and how the Treaty of Lisbon will develop. Nobody's talking about enlargement, as the political and institutional crisis couldn't have been overcome. If you add the new appointments to be made in the Commission and Parliamentary elections, the situation would become clearer. So what do they talk about Turkey? Turkey isn't on Brussels's agenda. They even don't discuss the formula of privileged membership. Certain circles might be talking about what France and Germany are trying to do, but there's not any interest in Turkey generally.
Turkey's position can be summarized as follows: France doesn't favor Turkey's full membership. It doesn't want the cessation of membership talks completely, but it wants them to be prolonged. Germany is also deeply concerned about Turkey's full membership, but it doesn't favor the cessation of membership talks. Berlin doesn't want to lose the trump card of privileged membership, but it plans to keep it alive and put it on the table in the future, if necessary. Austria is acting completely suspiciously. Contrary to general conviction, the Greek Cypriot administration and Greece doesn't favor the cessation of membership talks. They aren't expected to reject Turkey's full membership, in case they get what they want. The countries outside these ones, namely, a total of 22 countries support Turkey. They don't want the process of membership talks to slow down. So the majority of these countries support Turkey. All the people from the Commission with whom we talked agree with each other, saying that the as long as we implement higher number of reforms in a quicker way, we would strengthen the hands of those who support us.
The issue of whether a solution would be found to the Cyprus issue is one of the issues which have been discussed the most. In the case of a lack of solution, suspension of membership talks with Turkey will be discussed in December 2009. Meanwhile, membership talks are continuing, but it seems hard to yield a result. So what will happen? The atmosphere in the Commission doesn't favor dramatizing the incident. After all, they're aware of the fact that they are responsible for the Cyprus issue to reach this point. They generally expect the Commission to write down a report and give a new chance to membership talks. They even don't mention the suspension of membership talks. Everybody knows that such a decision would close the EU's doors to Turkey and nobody wants this. Of course, the European Parliament elections to be held this week should be closely followed, because the result of these elections will create an impact on Turkey's membership talks.
If you ask something about Turkey in Brussels, you would see two interesting determinations. One of them is the impression about the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party. As part of this, it has lost its initial enthusiasm or they don't or don't want to implement the reforms. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan hasn't been dropped from the EU's book completely, but question marks about him are increasing. On the other hand, Brussels is totally pleased with the appointment of Bagis as the chief negotiator. A great many people say that finally they could have found an official authority who visits Brussels often. Indeed, we had a problem of existence and Bagis is filling this. Of course, Bagis isn't strong enough to overcome everything by himself, and Erdogan is holding the keys. But Erdogan doesn't get into action due to certain reasons. In this case, everybody is looking at Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Davutoglu has removed all the suspicions about the EU issue. Furthermore, the statements he made to the Kriter journal is very clear. I wonder if he'll be able to convince Erdogan.