Are We Ready For 2006?

BY ZEYNEP GURCANLI
STAR- Ankara had hoped that its EU membership negotiations would start in the first half of next year. Following all our reforms, the EU encouraged high spirits. However, the expected failed to materialize. Just two weeks before the Dec. 17 EU summit, the EU’s stance on Turkey is getting clearer while Ankara grows confused. Firstly, let’s talk about a realistic estimate of what we should expect on Dec. 17. During a recent meeting between Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul and the EU troika at The Hague, Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot summarized Turkey’s shortcomings on the Copenhagen criteria by saying that six more laws were needed. Among these is the Turkish Penal Code (TCK). If the new TCK is enacted this spring, the EU won’t move on Turkey’s EU partnership process before then. The Hague meeting clearly signalled that new EU Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn believes a screening process should be finished before our talks start. This process means comparing Turkish laws to the EU acquis communitaire. Experts say this will last at least six months. If this process starts in April, it can be completed by December.
In light of these developments, the current feeling in Ankara is that the government would reject any talks aimed not at full membership, but at some other formula. However, in order to deny ammunition those who oppose Turkey’s membership, Ankara isn’t stressing this. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Gul think that a statement that Turkey would reject any formula short of full membership and review relations with the EU in such a contingency would be seen as a threat. Now Ankara is keeping quiet in order to head off this charge. Ankara doesn’t want to start talks as late as 2006. However, if a date is given for spring 2006, Ankara might accept it. Ankara has another condition for this acceptance, namely, a celebration to send the message that Turkey is advancing on the path of full membership. Next April’s Turkish-EU Partnership Council meeting is planned for the celebration, to say in effect, ‘the first step in full membership talks, the screening process, is starting.’ In sum, membership talks in the first half of 2005 are a fantasy. The most optimistic estimate is starting them near the end of the year. The realistic date put forth by the EU is the first half of 2006. We should ready ourselves for this.