CAIRO, Nov 16 (AFP) - US Secretary of State Colin Powell's decision to resign, and his likely replacement by Condoleezza Rice, has raised concern about a toughening of US policy in the Middle East, experts said Tuesday.
From Egypt to the Palestinian territories to Qatar to Sudan, commentators praised Powell but many were apprehensive at the idea that US President George W. Bush would name his national security advisor to the State Department.
"I fear that Colin Powell's departure and his replacement by Condoleezza Rice signifies that George Bush's second mandate will be the one of the hawks," said Hassan Nafaa, a professor at Cairo's institute of political studies.
"Rice is more hardline than Powell. She is also very close to Bush and best placed to relate his thinking," he said, but underlined that he did not consider Rice a hawk in the sense of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
"I'm also worried that as more of a Russia specialist, with no special knowledge of the Middle East, Mrs Rice could be influenced by previous policies ... and that she will not be innovative."
In Qatar, the Al-Sharq newspaper said Powell's departure marked a "victory for the conservatives... who want to mould the government in their way for the next four years by excluding those who are considered 'doves'."
It said Bush's new mandate "does not inspire optimism... for the region, which is more than ever threatened by the dangers of violence and terrorism, in Iraq like Palestine, due to US policy based on the use of force."
In the West Bank, Palestinian negotiations minister Saeb Erakat paid tribute to the outgoing secretary of state as a man who commanded respect but said his successor had to show more balance.
"Mr Powell earned our respect from our meetings and communications with him. He was a strong man and a good man but the US policy is not about personalities," Erakat told AFP.
"We hope that in the future, the United States and President Bush will exercise balance with its policies in our region."
The Palestinians have long accused the Bush administration, which is the chief sponsor of the roadmap peace plan aiming to create a Palestinian state next year, of showing bias towards the Israelis.
Washington has infuriated Palestinians by endorsing a plan by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to pull out of the Gaza Strip while simultaneously cementing control over larger West Bank settlements.
"We want to see the implementation of President Bush's two-state vision, we want to see actions not words," said Erakat. "We respect Condoleezza but this is about policy, not personalities."
An analyst at Egypt's Al-Ahram centre of strategic studies, Eman Gad, said that Rice's arrival would result in a toughening of Middle East policy around the line supported by Rumsfeld, and he forecast trouble ahead.
He said Bush's second term will bring "big problems between Washington, Syria, Sudan and the Palestinians," but he also expressed optimism, saying that Rice "will without doubt be careful not to go too far."
Sudanese analyst Mohammed Latif, for his part, predicted an escalation of hostilities and a deepening of the crisis between his country and the United States.
"It's a victory for the hardliners of American diplomacy, who pushed for the war on Iraq. I'm not at all optimistic," Latif said.
"Rice's nomination is not in Sudan's interest. Unless there is significant progress made in peace negotiations in Darfur and in the south, a direction US intervention in Sudan cannot be ruled out under rice."
Washington has stated that genocide is taking place in Darfur, where in addition to some 70,000 people killed around 1.6 million have been forced from their homes, and accuses the government in Khartoum of failing to act.

11/16/2004 13:49 GMT - AFP