BY ISMET BERKAN
RADIKAL - The land border between Turkey and Armenia was closed shortly after Armenia became an independent country. Turkey closed the border out of solidarity with Azerbaijan, because Armenia invaded Azeri territory in the war which broke out over Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition, Turkey did this to force Armenia to make peace between the two countries. But as everybody knows, there are still regular flights between Turkey and Armenia, and I think they're always full.
The people living in and around Kars suffer the greatest loss in Turkey due to this closed border, because border trade is prohibited. Land-locked Armenia has also been seriously suffered by the embargo it faced after the war (mostly the Turkish embargo). Armenia became poor after it gained its independence, its economy growing weaker as its people fled the country to wherever they could, including Turkey, to find their future. The reasons for this aren't limited to the closed Turkish border or Turkey's indirect trade embargo.
Armenia, like Georgia, is poor because it preferred to remain Eastern instead of trying to become Western. This preference started with the war against Armenia and continued and is still continuing after it agreed to go under Russia's wing. But it could have taken a completely different path - for example, it could have solved the Nagorno-Karabakh issue by talking to Azerbaijan and mutual territorial exchanges, and it could have been integrated into the Western world via Turkey. Instead of doing this, it chose to focus on its national pride; and instead of being pragmatic, it chose to seek revenge for the past. This was entirely their choice.
Anyway, I don't mean to analyze the situation in Armenia, but to write about whether the land border between Turkey and Armenia will be opened. First, an opening seems unlikely without a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, in other words, without the signing of a peace treaty by Yerevan and Baku. Although some Turkish diplomatic figures have started to protest that Azerbaijan can't hold Turkey's foreign policy hostage, the political powers can't open the border without getting something in return. On the other hand, Turkey's foreign policies and Turkish-Armenian relations may be taken hostage by Azerbaijan. Indeed, there might be rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, and many now expect some gesture to be made before April 24 (the anniversary of the so-called 'genocide').
Unlike some, I believe this gesture won't be opening the border, but something else, for example, establishing diplomatic relations with Yerevan, something we don't have even though Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize independent Armenia. Obviously, opening a diplomatic representation in Yerevan would help to normalize relations between the two countries. Furthermore, Turkey has been recently trying to play an active role in solving the Azeri-Armenian problems and create rapprochement between the two sides.
Actually we know that every time our countries have been ready to sign a comprehensive peace agreement, they have been blocked by hurdles placed by Russia. If President Abdullah Gul got positive signals on this issue during his recent visit to Moscow, then a solution might be near. Our diplomats are working behind tightly closed doors to reach an Azeri-Armenian rapprochement. It's very important that this positive atmosphere isn't derailed by Russia or the US. US President Barack Obama telephoned his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev immediately after he left Istanbul, showing how seriously the issue is taken.