BY MEHMET ALI BIRAND
MILLIYET - While looking at the election results, let's pay attention to how the campaign was conducted and what the expectations were. The Turkish public saw the elections not as local, but as general elections. Put better, the conditions changed the situation and everyone is looking at the general distribution of votes. The campaign was led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who single-handedly and energetically stumped for the party.
He visited 66 provinces, targeting the opposition and the Dogan Group. He constantly hammered at these two targets. He made impassioned speeches and increased tension so much that finally the campaign turned into a referendum on him. Erdogan predicted confidently that his ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party would get 47-50% of the vote. It wasn't expected that the AK Party would lose any great number of votes.
The AK Party mobilized all its powers as ruling party, including those of the state and municipalities. Before the elections it was always the leading party. Considering all this, what should we make of how it won 39% of the vote? I don't think the AK Party lost the elections. The vote rate of 39% was vitally important for the party. The Turkish people showed that they didn't turn their back on the party. What's more, a showing of 39% in spite of the economic crisis is key. Of course, the drop in vote rates from 47% to 39% shows a considerable erosion, but the people haven't given up on the AK Party yet. In spite of certain losses in important municipalities, the strongholds of Istanbul and Ankara have yet to fall.
If they haven't turned their backs, what is the meaning of this vote? I think the Turkish people issued a warning to the AK Party, and mostly to Erdogan. Huseyin Gulerce, a columnist for daily Zaman, summarized the situation by saying that the Turkish people said 'one minute!' to the AK Party. No matter what you say, there is some dissatisfaction. The economic crisis and Erdogan's general approach had an impact on this dissatisfaction. Erdogan created so much public tension and took such harsh stances. He also used the incident at the recent Davos Summit. I think people are very tired of this.
The Turkish people don't want a fight, but want to find jobs, earn money and live comfortably. The AK Party's initial magic is now almost gone. In his post-election speech at AK Party headquarters, Erdogan was again very mature. You must remember his speech following the 2007 general elections. This time he understood the situation better. He said that the messages the public gave would be analyzed well and necessary lessons would be learned. We hope that he won't forget this.
If Erdogan can understand these results well, he can prevent a possible loss by the AK Party in a few years. Otherwise the devastation and new tensions from the economic crisis, which is expected to get worse, might bring heavier losses to the AK Party, perhaps even dethroning it as ruling party. In short, we shouldn't declare this the end of the AK Party, but it shouldn't think that it can continue business as usual.