BY OMER TASPINAR
MILLIYET- I was among nearly 100 participants from Turkey who last week went to Erbil, the capital of the northern Iraqi regional administration, for a two-day conference entitled 'Searching for Peace and a Future Together,' organized by the Abant Platform. This meeting alone and the speech given by Turkish Consul in Mosul Huseyin Avni Botsali there shows the rapprochement Ankara and the administration have had for the last year. During this time, there have been official contacts between the two. The Foreign Ministry, led by Special Representative to Iraq Murat Ozcelik, has met with Massoud Barzani, the head of the region. Naturally, Washington is also following these important developments very closely.
At the same time, American officials are asking: Why did Ankara change its mind after years of resistance and start to welcome dialogue with Erbil? Three basic answers can be given to this question. The first is about a change in Washington's policy. Since 2007, Washington has been providing Turkey with more support to fight the terrorist PKK. Intelligence cooperation in particular has helped make the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) more effective against the PKK in the Kandil region.
These cross-border operations obviously strengthened Ankara's hand vis-à-vis the regional administration. The Foreign Ministry certainly likes to have a strong hand. So a more self-confident Ankara has seen no harm at sitting at the table like this over the last year. In addition, Ankara's hand is stronger because political relations between Baghdad and Barzani are getting worse due to disagreement over the Iraqi oil law and the status of Kirkuk.
The second factor promoting a more comprehensive and serious dialogue between Ankara and Erbil is again about the dynamics in Washington. In the past, Turkey used to want to talk to just Washington and Baghdad about the northern Iraq issue. But now the US is set to gradually withdraw from Iraq under its new President Barack Obama. This will result in a serious vacuum both in Iraq and in the northern region. Ankara doesn't want this vacuum to be filled by Tehran. In addition, Ankara doesn't want the US to establish a permanent or temporary military base in northern Iraq. So Turkey's policy of rapprochement with Erbil makes sense to make the US feel there's no military or political problem in northern Iraq.
For the third factor, I should touch on the economic rapprochement between Ankara and Erbil. This new friendship benefits both sides, because there's trade of $7 billion. From Turkey's viewpoint, northern Iraq is an opportunity to reduce its energy dependence on Iran and Syria. This region is also an important resource for employment and investment in our southeastern region.
These are all factors leading Ankara to approach Erbil more positively. But we shouldn't forget a very important problem which could poison these positive developments, namely the Kirkuk issue. The US again has something to do with this very difficult issue. A new report by Henri Barkey of the Carnegie Endowment, an influential US think-tank, presents creative formulas for Kirkuk. The Obama administration should put more political and diplomatic priority on this issue without delay. Otherwise the relatively good course of incidents in Iraq and between Ankara and Erbil might sour.