RAMALLAH, West Bank, Nov 4 (AFP) - The process to replace Yasser Arafat, who has always resisted the temptation to annoint an heir apparent during his four-decade domination of Palestinian politics, could trigger a potentially perilous succession process.
French medics and Palestinian officials have denied reports that Arafat has died at a military hospital in Paris, but have admitted his condition is critical.
His passing at the age of 75 would leave an enormous void at the head of the Palestinian Authority and his Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) which many fear will unravel into chaos in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Under the terms of the PA's basic law, or mini-constitution, Arafat is to be replaced, in the event either of his death or incapacitation, by the speaker of parliament.
The speaker, currently Arafat loyalist Rawhi Fattuh, is entitled to hold the position as head of the PA until new elections are held within 60 days.
However, the chances of holding free and fair elections are far from clear and many people fear that anarchy, not democracy, will prevail in the immediate aftermath of his death.
Quite apart from the presence of Israeli troops in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the numbers of fighters from armed factions such as Hamas and Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades have mushroomed during the four-year Palestinian uprising.
Since Arafat was admitted to the Percy military hospital on the outskirts of Paris on October 29, prime minister Ahmed Qorei, 67, and his predecessor, Mahmud Abbas, 69, have taken up the lion's share of his political duties.
They have convened multiple meetings of Arafat's Fatah party, the PLO, the national security council and parliament, desperate to stave off talk of a power vacuum, albeit taking no concrete decisions while the leader was still alive.
Although Abbas, secretary general of the PLO, has been strongly tipped as a favourite heir, at only six years Arafat's junior, he also suffers from health problems.
Yet to be successful, he may have to face off challenges from a handful of candidates ambitious to succeed the "Rais" or president.
Both Abbas and Qorei belong to the old guard who followed Arafat into exile in Tunisia in 1982 and returned with him to the Palestinian territories in 1994. But there are also powerful contenders among the younger generation.
These young Turks proved themselves both during the first intifada from 1987 to 1993 and today's conflict, which erupted in September 2000.
Chief among them are former security minister Mohammed Dahlan, immensely powerful in the Gaza Strip and Jibril Rajub, a member of the national security council, based in the West Bank.
Yet another determining factor in any power struggle for prominence is likely to be the fate of some 8,000 Palestinian prisoners languishing in Israeli jails.
Marwan Barghuti -- Israel's most famous inmate and the West Bank Fatah leader who was jailed for life on multiple murder charges -- has often been touted as Arafat's most natural successor.
11/04/2004 17:09 GMT - AFP