WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (AFP) - Iraq will be the toughest task for whoever becomes US president, as elections in the war-torn country are set for January just after the new US leader takes office.
Iraq has been one of the dominatant issues in the narrow race between President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry ahead of Tuesday's vote.
With some 140,000 US troops in Iraq and 1,100 soldiers already killed there, the conduct of the war has been a major point of dispute. Each man claims he would make the better commander-in-chief.
The Iraq issue spills over into Iran's nuclear intentions next door, the Arab-Israeli conflict, terrorism, reforms in the Middle East and relations with Europe.
Speeches by Bush and Kerry have focused on US credibility in the world, but little is likely to change in the short run, according to specialists.
"Although the candidates present opposing views on the decision to go to war in spring 2003, they share a basic commitment to maintain deep American involvement on the ground until Iraq is stabilized," said Scott Lasensky, of the United States Institute of Peace.
"Bush has pledged to continue the current US approach, particularly the emphasis on holding elections in January.
"In contrast, Kerry has promised greater international cooperation and pledged to accelerate the training of Iraqi security forces.
"Neither candidate is likely to scale back America's troop presence in the short term," he said.
However, Bush and Kerry have emphasized different policy aspects of the war, which, in either case, will undergo a tough trial.
With the US president to be inaugurated on January 20, Bush insists on holding elections in Iraq by the end of that month. Bush has a lot riding on that election as he has put Iraq at the heart of his larger goal of democratizing the Middle East.
However, faced with growing violence in Iraq, Bush could face growing pressure to postpone the elections. If he insists on elections in January at any cost, the event will risk losing credibility.
"I am concerned that the elections can't come off because of the current security environment. I just don't see how that's going to happen," said Kenneth Pollack, of the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.
Kerry has promised to secure greater international cooperation to pull out of the quagmire, but he faces an uphill battle.
France and Germany, two key allies who opposed the war, have let it be known that they cannot be counted upon to change their refusal to contribute troops to the Iraq coalition.
Among the more than 30 countries contributing to the multilateral force now, the trend is more toward disengagement from an unpopular conflict than toward sending additional troops.
"There's obviously a reluctance around the world to help Bush out, but there will be a reluctance to help Kerry out, too," said James Steinberg, an advisor to Bill Clinton, during a presentation at the Brookings.
"There's no great enthusiasm among Europeans to play a significant role," he said.
11/01/2004 19:32 GMT - AFP