JERUSALEM, Nov 1 (AFP) - Israel, the most powerful and feted US ally in the Middle East, could see its relations with Washington cool whoever wins Tuesday's US presidential election, analysts said.
"The relations between our two countries are not dependent on the outcome of the ballot because we're united by the same values and strategic interests," Israel's ambassador to Washington, Danny Ayalon, told public radio Monday.
One Western diplomat in Tel Aviv was equally confident.
"I don't see a significant shift. Relations between Israel and the United States will remain excellent no matter who wins," he said.
Once the months-long distraction of the election campaign had died down, the diplomat anticipated stepped-up US efforts to revive the Middle East peace process regardless of the victor.
But that is a prospect hardly likely to endear itself to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who has enjoyed a relative carte blanche from US President George W. Bush's administration, analysts said.
"Relations will remain good, but it will be difficult to better them as they have been under Bush's first term and this could be the end of the honeymoon," said former director of the Israeli foreign ministry, David Kimche.
A Bush re-election could make him "more forthright than his first-time dealings with the Jewish and fundamentalist Christian pro-Israeli lobbies" the retired diplomat said.
"Washington is also exasperated by the refusal of the Israeli authorities to dismantle the wildcat settlements, contrary to all their commitments. After the ballot, there will be even less reason to keep your eyes closed," he added.
Israel, having endorsed the US-backed roadmap peace plan, is obliged to dismantle all of the unauthorised settlement outposts on occupied Palestinian territory but only a handful have been torn down to date.
A victory for the Democrats could spell other more unpleasantness for Sharon, given John Kerry's professed willingness to include Europe in a bid to solve the conflict -- something "categorically opposed" by Sharon's government, he said.
Professor Eitan Gilboa, from Tel Aviv's Bar-Ilan University said believed a Democrat in the hot seat would do "everything possible" to revive the internationally sponsored roadmap, contrary to Sharon's desire.
But even a re-elected Bush could make more effort to urge Israel to carry out its plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip with a minimum of coordination with the Palestinians and Egypt in order to avoid "chaos" in the territory.
However, Gilboa said he believed such undertones were unlikely to dislodge the close Sharon-Bush relationship, rooted in their shared view of the "war on terror".
According to one recent poll, at least 55 percent of Israelis would vote for the incumbent compared to 45 percent for his challenger.
Four years ago, somewhat ironically, it was Bush and the Republicans rather than the Democrats who incited Israeli mistrust given his close links to big oil interests and impressions that his father is pro-Arab.
But Bush has since garnered unprecedented support in Israel, going so far as to favour the de facto annexation of large West Bank settlement blocs.
This policy shift, which followed the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington, led the White House to see Palestinian militants as part of the Bush administration's war on terror.
Washington continues to grant Israel around three billion dollars in annual loan guarantees and has consistently vetoed any UN Security Council resolutions against the Jewish state despite heavy international pressure.
11/01/2004 14:23 GMT - AFP