With days to go before the 2 November vote, George W. Bush held a narrow national lead over John Kerry in most surveys, though the margin was contested and the state-by-state electoral map remained deeply unsettled.
Polls from the Washington Post, Fox News, Rasmussen, and TIPP put Bush ahead by one to two points. Newsweek had him up six, at 50 to 44 percent. The American Research Group showed a tie at 48 percent apiece, while Zogby International gave Kerry a one-point edge. Bush fell short of 50 percent in every poll except Newsweek, a pattern analysts viewed as a warning sign. A Fox News survey found 12 percent of his supporters might switch before Tuesday, versus six percent of Kerry backers.
On the electoral map, Bush had roughly 213 votes secured across 25 states; Kerry held about 190 from 14 states and the District of Columbia. Eleven competitive states totaling 135 electors remained in play, with Florida (27 votes) and Ohio (20) attracting the most attention. Polls were split on Florida while Bush showed a slight Ohio advantage. Both candidates concentrated their final travel on those states and the broader Midwest.
Legal challenges were widely anticipated. Fifty-nine percent of Newsweek respondents expected significant problems on election day, and 54 percent said the outcome might be settled in court. Analysts also flagged the remote possibility of a 269-269 Electoral College tie, which would push the decision to the House of Representatives. Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg summarized the state of the race as "a dead heat."
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this AFP wire report, first published in October 2004, in its own words.