WASHINGTON, Oct 31 (AFP) - A handful of close contests could tip control of the US Senate to the Democrats on Tuesday, but the House of Representatives is expected to remain firmly in the grasp of George W. Bush's Republican Party.
Like voters across America, who are evenly split between Republican "red" and Democratic "blue" states, the US Congress is almost equally divided, although the Republican Party holds the edge in both chambers.
The 100-seat Senate has 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one Independent who usually votes with the Democrats.
One-third of the Senate's seats are contested every two years, but just nine of the 34 at stake are considered to be up for grabs in this election.
Democrats need to pick up one or two seats to regain a majority in the Senate, but five seats seen as endangered are held by Democrats: South Dakota, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana and Florida.
An unusually high number of Democratic incumbents are retiring from Republican-leaning Southern states: John Breaux of Louisiana, Ernest Hollings of South Carolina, Bob Graham of Florida and John Edwards of North Carolina, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry's running mate.
In four Senate races Republican-controlled seats are at risk: Alaska, Colorado, Kentucky and Oklahoma.
New Jersey Senator Jon Corzine, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said a majority-Democrat Senate is a tall order, but not out of the question.
"We feel very comfortable that we have candidates that are mainstream and moderate, to fit the populations," Corzine said in a television appearance. "I think we're going to be very strong. We're going to go against that red tide."
Republicans are just as confident of holding or even widening their lead.
"I think we have a great opportunity to pick up three seats," Senator George Allen said in a US television interview, touting lower taxes and quality education.
Pundits agree the Republicans seem most likely to prevail at the ballot box.
"Most of these close Senate races are in solid or even overwhelming Republican territory," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
"I just don't see it coming together for the Democrats. They may be able to peel off one or two seats, but probably not more than that," he told AFP.
Corzine said recent Washington gridlock and the bitterly-contentious tone of Congress this past legislative session would work in the Democrats' favor.
"The Republicans own Washington. They have the White House, they have the House of Representatives, and they have the United States Senate," he said. "(But) Republicans can't get their act together.
"That's why the people in this country believe we're on the wrong track in every poll that I see," said Corzine.
While the battle for control of the Senate is too close to call, the Republicans' lead in the House -- where many seats have been gerrymandered to protect incumbents from both parties -- will be hard for the Democrats to reverse.
Most analysts predict the Republicans will even increase their advantage, particularly after party leaders in Texas reconfigured districts there to virtually guarantee the takeover of a half-dozen House seats currently held by Democrats.
At present, 227 House seats are held by Republicans and 205 by Democrats. Two seats are vacant and one is held by a Democrat-leaning Independent.
The magic number giving either party a one-seat edge in the 435-seat chamber is 218.
10/31/2004 02:31 GMT - AFP