The U.S. Elections And Turkey

BY YASEMIN CONGAR
MILLIYET- My personal views coincide with Turkey’s official preference, a high-level Turkish bureaucrat told me during a recent chat. His words implied that both he and Ankara want US President George W. Bush to win the elections. Ankara of course cannot adopt an ‘official’ stance on this issue. However, the observations of a high-level official familiar with both countries are noteworthy.
I don’t think his stance coincides with the Turkish public’s preferences. In fact, the majority of the world seems to favor Democrat Senator John Kerry winning, along with our people. I don’t believe it is mistaken to argue that there is a strong anti-Bush feeling behind this wish, rather than a pro-Kerry stance. But how can we explain why Ankara is close to the Bush administration while the Turkish nation wants him to get his walking papers? I believe that there are three main reasons: First of all, Ankara fears that a Kerry administration might support the idea of partitioning Iraq. In addition, Kerry is likely to back the Armenian lobbies, advocating that Turkey be punished over the so-called Armenian genocide. Finally, bureaucrats see ties between Ankara and Washington improving over Bush’s term, despite a number of problems of late.
Personally, I do believe that a Kerry administration would see through significant economic and social changes domestically and give Washington a chance to repair its image internationally. However, no matter who is elected, the next president will face a host of problems concerning Iraq and terrorism. Both candidates have underlined that the US mission in Iraq must be completed, clearly expressing that American troops leaving the country immediately is a non-starter. However, Kerry wants to transform the Iraqi issue into an international one by organizing an international summit to discuss it as the world’s common problem.
As a matter of fact, there are no major differences of opinion between Bush and Kerry on the issues of Iraq’s territorial integrity. We know that neither Bush nor Kerry favor the establishment of a Kurdish state in the region. However, I know that some people from both US Republican and Democratic circles believe that Iraq’s territorial integrity cannot be protected and so a Kurdish state will be formed sooner or later.
Kerry and Bush have agreed that any possible Iraqi scenario should be realized under conditions which would ease Turkey’s concerns on the issue. Both Republicans and Democrats believe that Turkey cannot be allowed to hold unilateral military operations in northern Iraq no matter what happens there.
In brief, I believe that Washington will adopt a similar stance in the future no matter who wins. Both candidates are expected to favor a Turkey establishing close relations with the Baghdad administration or any other possible federal formation in the north.
We’ll discuss other points later.