KABUL, Oct 25 (AFP) - A fervent desire among Afghans who have just chosen their first president is to end the rule of warlords, but analysts say a future leader would find it difficult to grant his constituents' wish to rule without them.
"A government without the warlords? It is not realistic," said Ahmed Joyenda, president of the Foundation for Culture and Civil Society.
Hamid Karzai, the US-backed incumbent who has secured an outright majority in near-complete counting from the October 9 vote "does not have a political party, he does not have a strong organized movement, and the Afghan national army and police are too weak," Joyenda added.
Afghans in most parts have declared "that they are primarily afraid of the local factional leaders and military commanders -- not the Taliban insurgency" Human Rights Watch stated in its 'The Rule of the Gun' report before the election.
In the 12 months since a nationwide UN-backed drive to disarm tens of thousands of private militiamen was launched, around 21,000 soldiers have been decommissioned.
But Afghanistan still has more than 60,000 unofficial militia fighters, against the embryonic Afghan National Army's troop level of 16,000.
The militiamen take orders from local military chiefs, who are themselves loyal to warlords whose notoriety often reaches beyond Afghanistan's borders: Abdul Rashid Dostam, Ismael Khan, Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim and Mohammad Mohaqeq.
These links allow the warlords to impose their own laws over civilians, outside central government authority and sometimes to the detriment of Afghans.
"I am the acting governor but I have no authority. I can only sign but have no feeling of responsibility. I don't have the power to say 'no'," a provincial governor, who asked not to be named, told a World Bank study.
"It's only in name that we have a system of government. It does not exist in reality."
After the 1992-1996 civil war, warlords were driven out by the fundamentalist Taliban regime.
Five years later they helped the United States oust the so-called religious students, wining prestigious posts in reward -- the defence ministry, the foreign ministry, the planning ministry -- in the heart of the government.
"Some have been allowed to go into illicit (narcotics) activities because it was considered to be politically a stabilising element," a Kabul-based diplomat told AFP.
Karzai has since often promised that he would not include warlords in a future cabinet if he was re-elected.
But in reality his pledges are difficult to achieve.
Karzai dropped Fahim, his defence minister, from his presidential ticket, but replaced him with another warlord as his vice-presidential running mate Mohammad Karim Khalili.
He has also stated that he wants to bring into his administration Ismael Khan, the warlord who governed prosperous western province Herat until Karzai sacked him in September.
"The warlords supported him, they got votes for him and they want to maintain power," said Masooda Jalal, the sole woman to run for president.
"That means a question mark for disarmament, a question mark for transitional government, a question mark for human rights, for the reconstruction of Afghanistan, for having a transparent government."
Some warlords who ran for election won enough votes to claim a mandate from Afghans.
"The president intends to form a government totally based on merit and representing every ethnicity. But he admits that they (warlords) exist and that they have an influence," a government aide told AFP, on condition of anonymity.
"It is still difficult for the president to totally ignore the influence of the warlords. It is not wise to confront them. It is better to wait."
Nevertheless if the power of these strongmen is not swiftly curtailed, they will work for their own interests, fuel corruption and destroy Afghanistan's chances at reconstruction, the analysts said.
10/25/2004 02:52 GMT - AFP