VILNIUS, (AFP) - A Russian-born tycoon's party is set to capture the most seats in Lithuania's parliament in second-round elections Sunday, making it likely he will enter a coalition government in this new EU member.
Millionaire Viktor Uspaskich's Labour Party, set up last year on a populist platform promising to raise pensions and wages, has proclaimed the ambitious goal of gaining an absolute majority in parliament.
"Today we still have a possibility to fight for an absolute majority in the parliament and for the position of prime minister and we are directing all our time and energy to achieve this goal," Uspaskich told AFP.
However, analysts predict three strong blocs will emerge and the current ruling left-wing coalition will choose to bring Uspaskich into government rather than forging an unstable "rainbow coalition" with right-wing parties.
Labour won 23 seats out of 75 distributed in the first round of elections to Lithuania's 141-member legislative body, held on October 10. It is fielding 48 candidates for 66 seats up for grabs in individual districts on Sunday.
The national legislative polls are the first to be held since the Baltic country joined the European Union and NATO earlier this year.
"It is very unlikely that Labour will win more than 20-25 seats during the second round," Lauras Bielinis, professor at the Vilnius Institute for International Relations and Political Sciences told AFP.
"Such an outcome will result in a situation, where three strong blocs emerge in the new parliament with none of them able to rule alone," he added.
In the October 10 poll, the ruling left-wing Social Democrat and Social Liberal coalition got 19 seats in the first round and could expect to double that on Sunday.
The right-wing Conservative Party and Liberal Center Union won 11 and seven seats respectively, and are forecast to end up with a similar level of representation in parliament.
The popularity of Uspaskich, who made his money trading gas in the late 1980s, has alarmed some in Lithuania who fear the hidden hand of Moscow. The former Soviet republic gained its independence in 1991.
But a large section of the population are nostalgic for Soviet times, when Lithuania was one of the richest republics in the Soviet Union rather than one of the poorest in the European Union now.
Despite Uspaskich's success, Lithuania's current prime minister has insisted on keeping his job.
"I think that a coalition with the Labour Party is impossible if I am not offered the position of prime minister," Algirdas Brazauskas said after the first-round election.
Lithuania's President Valdas Adamkus offered his backing for this week for Brazauskas, saying he does not expect to appoint Uspaskich as prime minister unless he obtains a stunning victory in the second round.
"The government led by Brazauskas did not receive major rebukes, it proved it's capacity and I do not see obstacles for it to continue if it gets the mandate of Lithuania's people," Adamkus told public television.
Rimvydas Valatka, columnist at the largest Lithuanian daily Lietuvos Rytas believes that most likely the Labour Party will finally make a deal with the Social Democrat and Social Liberal coalition.
"The other alliance, or so-called rainbow coalition of left and right parties would be hardly possible, while Uspaskich will fall short of supporters to go it alone," Valatka said.
10/22/2004 - 05:16 GMT - AFP