Bush Holds Narrow National Lead as Final Two Weeks Begin, Polls Find

National polls released in mid-October 2004 showed President George W. Bush holding a slim edge over Democratic rival John Kerry two weeks before the 2 November election, though the gap remained statistically insignificant in most surveys.

The CBS News/New York Times survey put Bush ahead 47 to 45 percent; the Washington Post showed a 50 to 47 margin. Both Gallup and Newsweek recorded larger spreads among likely voters than among registered voters, pointing to turnout as a potential deciding factor.

Kerry fared better in battleground states. A Rasmussen poll of 16 swing states put him ahead 48 to 46, reversing Bush's lead from the week before. Two-thirds of Gallup respondents said they were more enthusiastic about voting this cycle than in prior contests.

Analysts focused on Florida (27 electoral votes), Ohio (20), and Pennsylvania (21) as the probable tipping-point races, all three too close to call. Independent Ralph Nader, at two percent nationally, remained a concern for Democrats who felt he could draw critical votes from Kerry. Both Time and Newsweek placed Bush's overall job approval below 50 percent, historically a difficult position for incumbents seeking re-election.

Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this AFP wire report, first published in October 2004, in its own words.