TBILISI, Oct 13 (AFP) - As disputes drag on over which of five hardline separatists won an election for "president" in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia, it is clear who the real victor in the vote is: Georgia itself.
Officials in Tbilisi, like those of almost any country that has bothered to comment on the October 3 vote, say the ballot was illegitimate because the province is part of Georgia, despite a unilateral declaration of independence.
But they also take the unofficial view that a win in Abkhazia by a candidate portrayed as relatively open to Tbilisi would be to their liking and that continuing bitter infighting over the vote only undermines the Abkhaz cause.
"The most important thing is that the Abkhazians did not let Moscow decide for them who should be their president," said Georgia's minister for conflict resolution, Georgy Khaindrava.
His remark reflected Georgia's anxiety over Russia's involvement in Abkhazia, where anti-Georgian leaders are supported -- some say guided -- by Moscow in their effort to keep the central government in Tbilisi at bay.
The election is still being disputed by Sergei Bagapsh and Raul Khajimba. Local election officials declared Bagapsh the winner this week, but Khajimba wants the local "supreme court" to determine who won.
Bagapsh is married to a Georgian and spent a part of his career in the Georgian Communist Party under the Soviet Union, thus retaining bonds to Georgia's political elite and an image of being closer to Tbilisi.
He also received the most votes in an area surrounding the Abkhazian town of Gali, which is populated mainly by ethnic Georgians and where, Khajimba charges at least, ballots were printed in Georgian only.
All five candidates struggled ahead of the vote to outdo each other in flaunting nationalist credentials, and Bagapsh flatly rejects speculation that he is somehow more prepared to accommodate Tbilisi than the others.
"We are considered pro-Georgian, but we are pro-Russian," Bagapsh was recently quoted by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti as saying. "If I am elected, the movement to integrate Abkhazia into Russia will accelerate."
But political experts here say the likely victory by Bagapsh is good news for Georgia and its new president, Mikhail Saakashvili, who has vowed to bring Abkhazia and other wayward regions of Georgia back under the central control.
"Georgian authorities can talk more openly with a president chosen by the people and not appointed by Moscow because he will be more flexible and less under a Kremlin diktat," said Paata Zakareishvili of the Center for Development and Cooperation, a Tbilisi-based think tank.
Arshil Gegeshidze, researcher with the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, agreed that Georgia would benefit from the vote in Abkhazia, but was cautious on how far that benefit could go.
"A change of power presents Tbilisi with new opportunities for negotiating peace," he said. But he added: "Bagapsh will never be totally independent from Moscow, which is looking for a loyal Abkhazia" leadership.
Whoever ultimately emerges as the winner of the Abkhazia poll, the fact that it remains a protracted and bitter dispute illustrates political disarray in the region and is certain to undermine its efforts to consolidate its de facto independence.
But western countries have been concerned that Saakashvili's attempts to bring separatist provinces back under central control could raise tensions with Russia and reignite fighting in the region, just as a major oil pipeline through Georgia nears completion.
In the past week, the current Abkhazia leader, Vladislav Ardzinba, has warned that the infighting presented a danger of "civil war" and has spoken of a Georgia-backed "state coup", though Abkhazia is not technically a state.
In either an effort to settle or exacerbate the dispute, Khajimba offered Wednesday to withdraw his candidacy -- provided Bagapsh agreed to do the same, ITAR-TASS news agency reported. Bagapsh did not immediately respond.