By Yusuf Kanli
TDN- Contrary to weather reports predicting a sharp drop in temperatures, Ankara is likely to have a very hot winter this year. According to Ankara gossips, Erdogan will unveil a comprehensive reshuffling of his Cabinet immediately after securing a date for the start of accession talks on Dec. 17 from the EU Council
Who will stay in the Cabinet and who will be left out? This is the question being discussed in Ankara`s political circles nowadays, rather than will there or will there not be a Cabinet reshuffle.
Indeed, a Cabinet reshuffle has long been a hot topic in Ankara, but now that it has become "almost clear" that Ankara will finally get a date for the start of accession talks at a Dec. 17-18 summit of European Union leaders, the issue has become the talk of the town.
So far, according to well-placed political experts, fearful of possible repercussions, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been looking for the "optimal day" to unveil the changes in the list of ministers. That day, it is said, will most likely be the "day after" the Dec. 17 EU statement on Turkey`s accession talks because as the head of a government that realized the 41-year dream of the country to open accession talks with Europe, Erdogan will become Turkey`s strongest-ever political leader and unable to be discreetly or publicly attacked by possible disgruntled senior members of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) left out of the Cabinet.
But if Turkey somehow cannot get a date from the EU Council, Erdogan will have to shelve all his plans once again because at that moment he will become the most vulnerable political leader of recent history -- even worse than the situation of former Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan during the 1997 February 28 process. In such a situation Erdogan will have to continue with the present government list.
AKP Istanbul Provincial Chairman Mehmet Muezzinoglu delivered the first strong indication of a Cabinet reshuffling in recent talks with some newsmen, but Erdogan was quick to flatly deny the reports as speculation. However, only days after characterizing what Muezzinoglu had disclosed to the press as "unfounded speculation," the premier was the guest of honor at a dinner hosted by the AKP`s Istanbul provincial leader. Anyhow, Muezzinoglu, a close associate of the premier, would not have uttered a word to the media about what he had previously discussed with Erdogan. Indeed, what Muezinoglu did was a "political gaffe," or to put it more correctly, the revelation of something that was discussed in Erdogan`s inner circle but which is not yet ripe.
Guldal Aksit, the state minister for women and family affairs -- who has reportedly told the premier that for health reasons she wants to remain out of the Cabinet -- is likely to be replaced by Culture Minister Erkan Mumcu -- who has upset the conservative flank of the ruling party by giving permission for an international conference of gays and lesbians in Istanbul.
Omer Celik, political advisor to Erdogan and the AKP`s Adana deputy as well as a journalist, is expected to replace Mumcu as culture minister.
While Interior Minister Abdulkadir Aksu is tipped to remain in the Cabinet because of his strong grassroots support, he is anticipated to be moved to the post of deputy prime minister.
Aksu is expected to be replaced by Istanbul deputy Naim Sahin, the secretary-general of Erdogan when he was serving as Istanbul mayor.
Labor Minister Murat Basesgioglu is expected to be replaced by Amasya deputy Akif Gulle -- needless to say, also from Erdogan`s Istanbul municipality team.
Contrary to widespread speculation, Transportation Minister Binali Yildirim will likely stay in his post while Public Works Minister Zeki Ergezen and Education Minister Huseyin Celik are expected to be dropped out of the Cabinet. Elazig deputy Zulfu Demirag is expected to replace Ergezen, while Erzurum deputy Omer Ozyilmaz is said to be getting ready for the Education Ministry.
Justice Minister Cemil Cicek, on the other hand, is likely to stay in his post.
In short, contrary to the weather reports predicting a sharp drop in temperatures, Ankara is likely to have a very hot winter this year.