WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (AFP) - There is little President George W. Bush or John Kerry can do to halt the oil price boom without achieving the so-far unachievable: peace in Iraq, analysts say.
"If we can somehow lower geopolitical tensions, which really have become an economic wedge, that could bring the price of oil down significantly," Wells Fargo Bank chief economist Sung Won Sohn said.
"I think it could come closer to 30 dollars a barrel eventually."
Refco energy market analyst Marshall Steeves agreed.
"I think the bigger impact would be the removal of the geopolitical risk, regardless of who wins, and also if we see a diminution of the turmoil in Iraq," he said.
Oil prices could be crucial to voters in the November 2 presidential elections.
The crude oil price is up 70 percent in the past year, heating oil prices are expected to be up 29 percent this winter, and gasoline prices are on the rise.
In Santa Fe, Mexico, a day before a crucial third televised debate, Kerry accused Bush of breaking a promise to get the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost output.
He vowed to wean US consumers off Middle East oil.
"I want America's energy future, I want America's security to be in the hands of Americans and in our own ingenuity, our own innovation not the Saudi royal family or others around the world," Kerry said.
But neither presidential candidate could actually cut off the United States from oil imports, which account for about two-thirds of US petroleum supplies, analysts say.
"In terms of major policy efforts that would really make a difference, I don't see anything," Lehman Brothers chief US economist Ethan Harris said.
The underlying problem in the oil market was solid global energy demand, a string of minor disruptions to supply, and a lack of US investment in productive capacity, he said.
"In the meantime we will have to live with high energy prices."
Analysts said it was pointless for Kerry to call for more output from OPEC because it already was pumping at near full capacity.
In the short term, however, Kerry could influence prices by halting Bush's program of buying oil to build up the emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve, they said.
"The US continues to buy oil and put it into its strategic reserve. I think that might end under a Kerry presidency," Harris said.
"I think it is not a bad idea because what is the point of buying oil at 50 dollars a barrel and sticking it away for safe storage? Again, could that have a big impact? Not really."
Bush criticizes Kerry for refusing to back his 32-billion-dollar energy bill whose Republican backers say would cut US dependence on foreign oil, open Alaska to exploration, and bolster a creaky power grid.
Democrats and environmentalists, however, said the bill was rife with corporate giveaways and would bar lawsuits against makers of a gasoline additive that has tainted US groundwater.