BAGHDAD, Oct 12 (AFP) - The US commander for Baghdad's Sadr City professed "cautious optimism" Tuesday over a peace initiative with Shiite rebel cleric Moqtada Sadr's militia, but warned that breakaway factions of the radical movement were refusing to comply.
"I'm cautiously optimistic for a couple of reasons. One, we've never before had an initiative announced with the endorsement of Moqtada Sadr to disarm and disband... They'll generally listen to him," Colonel Abe Abrams told AFP.
"And so that's a good sign. But it's just a sign. It's not a turning point. It's a starting point. It's not a dramatic turn around of events."
Abrams, charged with the teeming slum of 2.5 million people in Sadr City, where US forces and Sadr's thousands-strong Mehdi Army have battled for six months, sees a chance for peace, but also fears there are many obstacles ahead.
The Iraqi government weapons buyback has the benchmark of thousands upon thousands of arms turned in as the ultimate test of the Mehdi Army's intention, Abrams said.
The Iraqi police and national guard, backed by US forces, will conduct searches in Sadr City following the five-day buyback period which ends Friday.
"If they've turned in thousands of thousands of weapons, arms, ammunitions and explosives, the searches will not be as lengthy. But if we only get in 1,000 RPGs for instance... we've got a lot of work to do," he said.
Abrams warned that conflict was looming with at least two of Sadr's aides who were refusing their leader's disarmament order.
"We know there are elements of the militia who are not going to follow the directive. They are not supportive of this initiative. And they will not be in compliance of Moqtada Sadr's directive to his own people.
"We know for a fact there are at least four pretty significant leaders: (Abdul) Hadi al-Darraji being one of them who has shown no interest at all to disarm or disband, in clear contradiction to his leader's directive; Qais Khaazali and two other guys who I'm going to let remain nameless because they may turn."
Darraji and Khaazali are senior lieutenants in the Sadr movement. The whereabouts of Khaazali are unknown but Darraji is based in Sadr City.
Responding to Abrams' comment, Sheikh Abdul Zahra al-Suwaidiy, a Sadr negotiator, said: "It is not true, all the leaders are on board."
But Abrams warned the splinter movements "will have to be dealt with accordingly.
"As long as they have a steady influx of money those guys can hire guys everyday (to fight). So they are a clear and present danger to the security situation in Iraq and right here in Baghdad."
Abrams warned a showdown with the splinter factions would throw Sadr City back into chaos and anarchy, forestalling any immediate rebuilding effort.
"It's not inevitable, but really we need to prepare for the worst."
Abrams virtually ruled out amnesty for any of Sadr's men who were proven to have committed attacks.
"The prime minister's office has said very clearly anyone who is guilty of criminal behaviour will be treated as a criminal. Criminal behaviour... includes anyone who attacks or has attacked Iraqi national guard, Iraqi police or multinational forces."
Raids would carry on for "key leaders of the militia organisation" he said estimating the number wanted for violence at less than 100.
"The faceless guy who put in the improvised explosive device he'll be hard to finger and get evidence on. But the guys issuing the orders, getting the resources, funneling the money... it will be a lot easier to get the evidence on those guys for their arrests."
The arms buyback period was a time for some of the top figures to come forward, renounce violence and ask clemency from the government, the colonel added.
"Those are a case by case basis," he said. "They've got all week to do it."