Polls Split Three Weeks Out as Kerry Gains Ground in Key States

With three weeks until election day on 2 November, national surveys gave conflicting readings of the presidential race. A Washington Post/ABC News poll put Bush ahead 51 to 46 percent and a Rasmussen survey gave the Republican a four-point margin, while a Zogby poll showed Kerry leading 47 to 44.

Kerry had narrowed the gap after a strong first debate on 30 September. A second round was judged even, and a third was scheduled for Wednesday in Tempe, Arizona, with domestic policy as the focus.

On the electoral map, analysts credited Bush with roughly 206 votes secured and Kerry with 214, leaving 10 states and 118 electors undecided. Political scientist Eric Davis said the outcome would likely hinge on carrying at least two of three states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. State polls showed Pennsylvania leaning toward Kerry, Ohio giving Bush a thin edge, and Florida essentially tied.

Allan Lichtman of American University argued that a stable domestic environment and a rising economy favored the incumbent. Republicans also placed a gay-marriage ban referendum on the Ohio ballot, a move intended to increase conservative turnout in a state no Republican has carried the White House without in recent history.

Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this AFP wire report, first published in October 2004, in its own words.