ISTANBUL, Oct 7 (AFP) - Turkey woke up Thursday feeling a bit more European after clearing a major hurdle in its bid for EU membership, but faced a rough ride ahead with analysts divided on what a much-awaited report recommending the start of membership talks really meant.
Turkish officials have been adamant that Wednesday's European Commission report recommending negotiations to let Turkey in was -- despite its caveats -- a "historic step" for Turkey and Europe.
Cengiz Aktar, an EU specialist here, agreed.
"It is impossible to be pessimistic," he said. "This is a brand new era in Turkey's relationship with Europe.
"For the first time, there will be a dialogue," Aktar said. "So far, Turkey always did everything on its own, as well as it could. Now, real negotiations will start."
Hasan Unal, an international relations expert at Ankara's Bilkent University, was less optimistic.
The report released Wednesday by the EU executive, recommending that EU leaders decide to launch membership negotiations with Turkey when they meet in Brussels on December 17, is "a real minefield," Unal said.
"The wording is such that if, say, the (anti-Turkey) Christian Democrats come to power in Germany in 2006, they can easily say, 'We never promised you membership'," he said.
"On the other hand, if there is miraculous economic recovery over the next few years in Turkey and the EU -- and if the Christian Democrats don't come to power -- the road to full membership could be open.
"In short," Unal said, "they (the EU) have played it safe."
He was also bothered with the mention in the report of an "open-ended" negotiating process with Turkey.
"This is very troublesome," he said. "Nothing like this was ever put in writing for other candidates (such as Bulgaria and Romania, due for full membership in 2007). What does this mean? It means they can reject Turkey on whatever grounds, even if all the conditions are met."
"Of course they're going to say 'open-ended talks'," Aktar countered, saying this and other caveats in the Commission report were evidence of EU countries "trying to reassure themselves."
"There is not a single European politician today who could come out and say, 'Turkey will be a full member in 2006'," he said. "Blood would flow."
Aktar is one of several Turkish commentators who welcomed the strict conditions imposed by the EU executive.
"It will keep Turkish governments on their toes," he said, and maintain the momentum of the reforms Turkey has adopted at breakneck speed over the past two years in its bid to be on a par with European democratic standards.
"If I were a ... European who did not really want Turkey in the EU but did not dare say so," wrote columnist Ismet Berkan in the liberal daily Radikal, "I would suggest unconditional negotiations."
Recalling Turkey's first EU bid, an association agreement signed in Ankara in 1963 with the then-European Economic Community, Berkan, tongue in cheek, wrote: "In 41 years, we managed to fulfill some of the conditions.
"Imagine how long unconditional negotiations could take -- at least 20-25 years... The EU conditions will speed things up and it is highly likely that Turkey will conclude the process in 10 years."
Aktar cautioned, however, that not the whole picture is rosy.
"December 17 is not yet a done thing," he warned, referring to the date of the EU summit that is expected to give Turkey a date for accession talks.
"EU practice so far has it that when a decision is reached at a December summit to negotiate with a candidate country, talks begin the following January -- right after the Christmas break," he said.
"This is what should be done for Turkey as well," he said. "Even if they do not start 'de facto', they should start 'de jure'.
"Otherwise, the greatest threat will be to delay the start of negotiations until after national referenda within the EU on the European constitution -- that is the biggest threat Turkey faces today," Aktar said, allowing whatever anti-Turkey sentiment there may be in Europe to grow even further.