BRUSSELS, Oct 6 (AFP) - The European Commission may have given a green light to Turkey Wednesday -- and most people expect European Union leaders to do much the same in December -- but the road ahead could be long and very bumpy, analysts say.
The EU executive, whose views will form the basis for a decision at a mid-December European Union summit, voiced hope that the vast Muslim country could become a bridge between the Christian West and the Orient.
But amid widespread concerns -- not least among ordinary Europeans -- about what Turkey's EU entry would mean for the already-strained EU, no-one is holding their breath for the EU to lay out the red carpet.
"The negotiations will be tortuous and lengthy. Devils are in the detail," said British historian Norman Stone, a professor at Ankara's Bilkent University, writing the the Wall Street Journal Europe.
The EU executive itself, while hoping that talks can start early next year, admits that it may be "well into the next decade" before Turkey can actually be admitted. "The EU will evolve over this period and Turkey should change even more radically," it said in a study appended to its long-awaited report.
The report, while saying talks should start, set a series of strict conditions and a warning that the EU should be able to suspend or even stop the negotiations "in the case of a serious and persistent breach" of key EU standards.
Few in Brussels are willing to speculate about what could constitute such breaches. But the Turkish daily Milliyet on Wednesday listed "disaster scenarios" that could scuttle Turkey's bid during the negotiation process.
They included the re-arrest of Kurdish ex-lawmaker Leyla Zana, recently freed after a decade in jail; the army launching a major operation against Kurds in northern Iraq, or "radical Islamist groups creating havoc in Turkey."
But perhaps the biggest element of doubt stems perhaps from the sheer length of time the negotiations are expected to last: Turkey's current leaders can make commitments, but only for as long as they are in office.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan admitted as much when he visited Brussels last month to defuse a last-minute crisis over plans to criminalize adultery.
He gave assurances to EU enlargement chief Guenter Verheugen, but conceded: "I can only guarantee what I will do during the term of my government... I can't say what others after me will do."
Before the talks can begin of course comes the December 17 summit, when EU leaders will pore over the Commission's recommendations. Most, apart notably from Austria and Cyprus, are expected to more or less endorse it, experts say.
"They may well have an argument between now and the summit about over exactly how long before they open negotations (or) whether there's any more conditions," said Kirsty Hughes of the London School of Economics.
But "the probability must still be that you'll get a 'yes' in December," she added.
When exactly the talks start is also open to discussion -- Verheugen says "early next year," while experts say France may try to delay it for domestic political reasons to do with its referendum on the EU constitution.
Another French cloud stems from President Jacques Chirac's call for a referendum, at some point in the future, on Turkey's EU bid. And this despite a recent poll showing 56 percent of French people against the plans.
In Germany, -- whose leader Gerhard Schroeder is for Turkey's bid, like Chirac -- there is even less enthusiasm, with 57 percent against and 35 percent in favour. Other polls have showed similiar trends.
Hughes pointed out that this fits into an EU tradition of leaders pressing ahead with projects despite public skepticism -- including the EU's "big bang" expansion in May this year from 15 to 25 countries.
Above all the EU's Turkey decision seems likely to fuel a growing debate about exactly what the EU is for, half a century after its creation.
"It will tell us as much about us as about ourselves as Europeans in the 21st century as it will tell us about Turkey," said Liberal Democrat Euro-MP Graham Watson.