BRUSSELS, Oct 5 (AFP) - The European Commission remained tightlipped Tuesday about a crunch report on Turkey`s EU hopes, but it is widely expected to say Ankara is ready to begin entry talks while warning there is a long road ahead.
The EU executive`s report, to be released Wednesday, is also tipped to warn notably that the European Union could suspend or even break off negotiations at any point if it is unhappy with Turkey`s progress.
EU leaders are set to use the commission`s recommendations as a basis for a decision at a mid-December summit on whether to finally start membership talks with Turkey, four decades after Ankara first sought to join the European club.
Brussels spokesmen rebuffed all questions about what is in the report, but almost all its findings have already been leaked, including the key one that "Turkey sufficiently fulfils the (EU`s) political criteria to begin" talks.
Although the core message is good news in Ankara, the array of caveats are causing some alarm, particularly the warning that the talks could be called off if the EU is unsatisfied with Turkey`s reforms.
The report will also say that Turkey is unlikely to actually join the EU until "well into the next decade," while stressing the need for the EU to constantly monitor not only reforms pledged but their implementation on the ground too.
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul on Monday rejected any suggestion of "special conditions" for Turkey. "That is out of the question," he said in Ankara.
Gul has expressed confidence that the Brussels report will pave the way for a positive decision at the EU summit on December 17.
In theory, if that summit gives Turkey the thumbs up, negotiations should start "without delay," although diplomats say there are question marks about this, with some suggesting they could pledge to launch the talks in 2006.
Turkey has been waiting to join the European club since 1963 but its efforts have stumbled over its civil rights record. Opponents have long argued that Turkey is simply too big and too different to fit into the EU.
Turkey now however appears to be set for good news. But it is under no illusions about how soon it can join, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying Sunday that membership talks could last until 2019.
The commission report will also say, according to leaked copies, that while there has been progress in stamping out torture in Turkey, boosting freedom of expression and of the press and in Ankara`s treatment of its large Kurdish minority, there remains a lot of work to be done in these areas.
The annual cost of Turkey`s EU entry by 2025 would be between 16.5 and 27.5 billion euros or between 0.1 and 0.17 of the bloc`s gross domestic product, according to a commission impact study leaked last week.
One cloud hanging over the whole project is a pledge by French President Jacques Chirac to hold a referendum on Ankara`s EU hopes. In theory such a vote could simply reject Turkish EU entry, whatever happens in the negotiations.
The next head of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, said Monday he welcomed the idea of referenda in EU member countries.
"It is a mistake to assume that a decision of this importance can be taken against the will of Europeans," said Barroso.
The final version of the report is set to be approved by the 30-member commission in Brussels on Wednesday morning.
EU enlargement chief Guenter Verheugen, who last month said there were "no more obstacles on the table" to Turkey`s EU hopes, will then immediately present it to the European Parliament in Brussels, before presenting it to reporters.