BRUSSELS, Oct 5 (AFP) - The European Commission is expected Wednesday to recommend that Turkey is ready to begin talks on joining the EU, but warn that negotiations could be stopped if Ankara fails to carry out further reforms.
A Commission report on Turkey's progress towards meeting European standards has been widely leaked and EU sources confirm that it will give a green light but warn that the vast, mostly Muslim country might have to wait more than a decade to fulfil its long-held dream.
Top officials from the European Union's executive met Monday to finalize the core recommendations of the report to be unveiled on Wednesday.
After the meeting, an EU source said the report will state that Turkey fulfils the political criteria but will warn that the process could be suspended "if the Commission believes that the conduct of reforms in Turkey is compromised."
Based on the Commission's report, EU leaders have pledged to decide at a mid-December summit whether or not to open talks with Ankara.
In theory, if they give Turkey the thumbs up, negotiations should start "without delay," although diplomats say there are question marks about this, with some suggesting they could pledge to launch the talks in 2006.
Turkey has been waiting to join the European club since 1963 but its efforts have hitherto stumbled over its civil rights record. Opponents of Turkish membership have long argued that Turkey is simply too big and too different to fit into the EU.
Turkey now however appears to be set for good news.
But it is under no illusions about how soon it can join, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying Sunday that membership talks could last until 2019.
The Commission report will also say, according to leaked copies, that while there has been progress in stamping out torture in Turkey, boosting freedom of expression and of the press and in Ankara's treatment of its large Kurdish minority, there remains a lot of work to be done in these areas.
The French daily Le Figaro reported Monday that according to a leaked copy it had seen, the report calls for Turkey's application to be subject to much stricter controls than that of the 10 mostly ex-communist countries that joined the EU earlier this year.
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul defiantly rejected any suggestion of "special conditions" for Turkey.
"That is out of the question," he said.
Olli Rehn, who takes over next month from EU enlargement commissioner Guenter Verheugen, whose office is preparing the report, said Monday that the Commission will indeed recommend that the EU should start entry talks with Turkey.
But he stresssed that Turkey's commitment to human rights and the rule of law would have to be closely monitored.
Verheugen himself said last month that "no obstacles remain on the table" after resolving a week-long conflict last month about Turkish plans -- later abandoned -- to criminalize adultery.
The annual cost of Turkey's EU entry by 2025 would be between 16.5 and 27.5 billion euros or between 0.1 and 0.17 of the bloc's gross domestic product, according to a Commission impact study leaked last week.
The next head of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, meanwhile said Monday he welcomed the idea of referenda in EU member countries on the issue of Turkey's possible future accession.
"It is a mistake to assume that a decision of this importance can be taken against the will of Europeans," said Barroso.