A leaked European Commission impact study, released ahead of its October 2004 verdict on Türkiye's accession readiness, put annual membership costs at between 16.5 and 27.5 billion euros by 2025. Agricultural subsidies could reach 11.3 billion euros a year and regional development aid another 10 billion. The study's overall verdict on the economic effect: "positive but relatively small."
Türkiye's population of roughly 71 million, forecast to reach 82 million by 2015, would carry considerable weight under the EU's proposed double-majority voting rules, which require support from 55 percent of member states representing 65 percent of the bloc's population.
A panel led by former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari estimated that 2.7 million Türkiye residents could eventually settle elsewhere in the EU, about 0.5 percent of the bloc's total population. Many economists argued the inflow would benefit a continent with an aging workforce.
On the question of religion, the Commission study contended that Türkiye's accession would signal to the Muslim world that its beliefs are compatible with EU principles. Membership supporters pointed to Türkiye's secular government; critics drew a contrast between the country's prosperous, liberal European region and its larger, more socially conservative Anatolian interior.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this AFP wire report, first published in October 2004, in its own words.