WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (AFP) - Boeing Co. predicted Monday the world aviation market will pull out of a post-September 2001 slump with two trillion dollars in plane sales in the next 20 years.
In the period from 2004 to 2023, the world economy would grow at a pace of 3.0 percent a year, driving traffic passenger growth of 5.2 percent a year and cargo traffic growth of 6.2 percent a year, it said.
Boeing forecast a total market potential of 24,993 new commercial airplane sales worth about two trillion dollars over the period. Even after retiring 6,397 planes, the world fleet would double to 34,764.
"The long-term forecast for air travel is healthy," said Boeing's annual Current Market Outlook 2004.
World air travel had grown in 30 of the past 34 years, contracting only in 1991 and from 2001 to 2003, it said.
"Currently, the world air travel market is recovering and 2004 is poised for double-digit traffic growth."
Boeing said the market share for the biggest planes such as its 747 or the larger challenger developed by rival Airbus, the double-decker A380, would shrink to four percent from six percent now.
Other twin-aisle planes, such its own mid-sized, fuel efficient 7E7 Dreamliner would gain market share to 21 percent from 18 percent now, Boeing said.
By 2023, three quarters of the world fleet would be single-aisle planes, it said.
The aerospace and aviation group said it expected further deregulation, intensifying competition over the period.
"Typically, when deregulation occurs competition increases among airlines," it said.
"History shows that competition leads to an increase in new nonstop market and frequency growth, rather than an increase in average airplane size in seats."
Most of the growth in the world's airlines will be in increased frequencies and new routes served by small and intermediate-sized planes, it said.
"The large airplane market is small," Boeing said. While the intermediate-size fleet would double, the large plane fleet would grow by about one-quarter.
Overall, China would lead growth in air travel with demand in more mature economies growing at a slower pace.
Over the 20 years, air travel growth was expected to expand by 8.1 percent a year in China, 7.6 percent in Latin America, 6.1 percent across the Pacific, 6.0 percent between Europe and the Asia Pacific, 5.5 percent in the Asia Pacific excluding China and 4.1 percent in Europe.
As a result, the North American share of world traffic would shrink to 20 percent from 24 percent and the European share would decline to 12 percent from 14 percent.
Meanwhile, the intra-Asia-Pacific share would rise to 18 percent from 15 percent and the Latin American share would double to four percent from two percent.