WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US economy will grow solidly in 2005 despite high oil prices, no matter whether President George W. Bush or John Kerry is in the White House, top business economists said.
Gross domestic product -- total economic output -- was expected to grow 3.7 percent in 2005 after a 4.3-percent expansion in 2004, said a National Association of Business Economists (NABE) panel.
"After a soft patch in the spring quarter the economy appeared to find firmer footing this summer," NABE president Duncan Meldrum said.
"Fortunately, our panel expects the expansion to gain additional traction over the second half of this year and advance at a solid pace in 2005," Meldrum said.
The panel of 38 NABE forecasters said the outlook would be little different whether Bush or Kerry won the November 2 presidential elections.
"The NABE panel does not place significant weight on a Bush or Kerry victory," the survey report said.
Asked how they might adjust their forecasts, 82 percent of the economists they would make no change for a win by Bush and 58 percent said no change for a win by his Democratic challenger.
For 2004, the panel cut its forecast for economic growth to 4.3 percent from a four-month-old forecast of 4.7 percent as high energy prices curbed consumer spending.
The main oil contract in New York fell 42 cents to 49.70 dollars a barrel in late morning trade after settling above 50 dollars a barrel Friday for the first time.
Finance ministers and central bankers of the Group of Seven industrialized economies, meeting in Washington Friday, said oil prices were a risk to an otherwise strong global economy.
Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke, however, said Monday oil prices need not be a drag.
"It is the difference between rising prices and high prices. The economy can accommodate prices at the current level," said Bernanke, who is voting member of the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee.
Bernanke, speaking to reporters after addressing bankers here, said he hoped oil prices would decline gradually.
For 2005, the NABE forecast for US growth was barely changed, down to 3.7 percent from the previous forecast of 3.8 percent, as improving exports offset a slowing housing market.
The oil price in New York was expected to drop to 40 dollars a barrel by the end of this year and 35 dollars at the end of 2005, according to a consensus forecast by the NABE analysts.
Terrorism risks had little impact on the NABE outlook.
Sixty percent of the NABE analysts said the risk of terrorism led them to lower their forecasts for economic growth by less than 0.2 percent. Only five percent cut their outlook by more than 0.5 percent.